Divisional Playoff NFL Picks: Take Patriots ATS Against Chiefs

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, January 15, 2016 7:13 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 15, 2016 7:13 PM UTC

Round two of the NFL Playoffs begins with the Kansas City Chiefs, the hottest team in the league, visiting the New England Patriots, the defending Super Bowl Champs. Check our free NFL Pick here.

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NFL Picks: Patriots -4.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Kickoff is at 4:35 eastern as televised by CBS. One would normally expect the Patriots to be rolling this time of year. Rather, it is New England that is entering off consecutive season ending losses, while the Kansas City Chiefs enter as the hottest team in the league with 11 consecutive victories. None of the other seven teams have more than a two game win streak. Yet the opinion here gravitates toward the defending champs in bounce back mode against the upstart Chiefs. 


Betting Preview
Last week, the Chiefs put a 30-0 whipping on the Houston Texans. They outrushed and out passed Houston for a combined 314-226 advantage, but the real reason for the victory was a +4 net turnover margin for Kansas City, which gave Houston no chance at being in the game. With that +4 net turnover margin last week, Kansas City enters today with a +18 net TO margin for the season, a lofty number to be sure. If they are going to rely on turnovers for their success, however, it will probably not happen against a New England team who is #1 in the NFL with a miserly 14 giveaways for the season. There is lots of respect from this bureau with Andy Reid and his road record as head coach. In fact, the road team in Kansas City games is now on a 34-9 against the NFL odds. Chiefs’ QB Smith has been more than serviceable in the Chiefs’ late season run, but he does not have nearly the playoff experience with a record of 2-2 SU in playoffs. His efficiency will be further hampered if WR Maclin is unable to make post. Before you get too excited about that Chiefs’ record, note that it came courtesy of a weak schedule down the stretch, with their last seven regular season games against non-playoff teams. In the role of underdog, they were just 1-3 ATS this year, with a victory at Denver, but losses at Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. Defense became their calling card, as they allowed just 17 PPG and only 323 yards for the season. 

On the other bench is the far greater experience of QB Brady, who is 21-8 SU in the playoffs. He may well welcome back WR Edelman. At his disposal, Brady also has two powerful weapons in TE Gronkowski and PK Gostkowski. The Pats enter the playoffs following consecutive losses at the New York Jets and Miami. In the season ending loss to the Dolphins, they rested many of their regulars in a game where they were outgained 438-196. Looking for more motivation for the New Englanders? How about 41-14 MNF revenge for a loss at KC last season. You can do a lot worse in this game than line up with New England off consecutive favorite losses, and against a KC team who brings a short road dog price tag off their 11 game win streak. Take the Patriots as your NFL pick.

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