Dissecting Super Bowl Betting Markets, Public Betting Trends & Most Bet Items: What Sports Bettors Should Know

Doug Upstone

Thursday, January 29, 2015 1:25 PM GMT

The pattern has been established at the sportsbooks and the New England Patriots are the people’s choice for the Super Bowl when securing betting tickets in Nevada or at various offshore outlets.

Every sportsbook or contact I could retrieve information from has New England money running anywhere from 60 to 80 percent for NFL picks in the number of tickets written.

With the Patriots being the more public team, this comes as no surprise, but clearly, the line adjusters are not seeing what would be deemed “influential money” because of the disparity of wagers placed, there has only been minor adjustments with New England yo-yoing back and forth from a Pick to -1.

In using the ‘betting odds’ page at Sportsbookreview.com, as of Wednesday morning, 70 percent of the wagering outlets were at a Pick for the big game, with the large majority of the rest posting Seattle at +1 and a couple of more known public outlets having the Seahawks at +1.5.

 

One Wager Could Suffer
In talking to betting industry contacts who preferred not be identified, they acknowledged one typical wager which has not been wagered as heavily or with the usual zeal is the –money line- bet on either team.

Normally those generating sports picks will take the underdog, looking for a longer shot to come in as a outright winner, which ends up being a bigger winner than the more traditional 11/10 odds. What is holding this back is the spread itself, as it offers no value with the Pats at a Pick or -1 to make money line wagers.

The people I spoke with did agree it is a bit too early to make a precise call on this, but it does make sense.

 

Total is Drawing the Most Intrigue
There has been a general assumption the Super Bowl was a natural OVER play on the total for those reviewing the NFL odds. Last week, the OVER was running close to 2-to-1 on bets placed. But as David Purdum of ESPN.com reported, in talking to those making the adjustments on totals, just when they move to number to 48.5 or 49, the money comes in on the UNDER, which causes a total to recede.

A check of the updated stats now has the OVER at just past 55 percent of bets placed.

 

Prop Bets Attracting the Most Attention
Of course prop bets are an increasingly popular option for NFL football handicappers and those wanting continual betting action. For most these are recreational wagers, but there are an ample amount of serious bettors who literally survey each prop, seeking opportunities to find loose numbers to jump on.

Among the prop bets attracting the most attention are Tom Brady for MVP (Trending Positive), Brady total passing yards (Trending Over), Brady for what comes first - interception or touchdown (Trending TD), Marshaw Lynch rushing yards (Trending Under), Doug Baldwin receiving yards (Trending Under) and Rob Gronkowski for first touchdown of the game (Trending Positive) and receiving yards (Trending Under).

Enjoy the game!