Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Free Week 5 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Saturday, October 10, 2015 4:51 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 4:51 PM GMT

Denver has won all four games by 12 points or less, but that doesn't matter to them as long as they're winning. Oakland is 2-2 and they might have been a little overconfident.

Opening Odds & Line Movement

Open: -5.5 -105 at Pinnacle
The Broncos opened up as 5.5-point favorites on the road in Oakland and the NFL odds have since gone down to -4.5. There are still a few that are down on Peyton Manning, of all people, but his arm seems to have gotten stronger since the beginning of the season. Manning has never had a cannon and he has to use his whole body to get the ball downfield now, but he gets it there. Also, Manning doesn't have to be a superstar anymore as the Denver defense is second in yards allowed and points allowed. If the Broncos take care of the ball (they're fourth in giveaway/takeaway differential), they're a Super Bowl contender.

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Broncos vs. Raiders Spread

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Broncos vs. Raiders Money Line

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Broncos vs. Raiders Total

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Injuries
Denver had a slight worry about WR Demaryius Thomas, who has a sore neck, but Thomas should be fine to play this weekend. That is excellent news for the Broncos because all Manning has to do is throw it in Thomas' general direction, and Thomas has a great shot to come down with it.

The Raiders are also healthy for the most part as DB T.J. Carrie will probably miss this game with a chest injury, and it would be nice to have your entire secondary there to help deal with Thomas as well as Emmanuel Sanders. Carrie left Sunday's game with his arm in a sling, so keep an eye on that throughout the week.

 

Trends
The Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their last six games, going 5-1 SU as well. The Raiders are 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10 overall, but they're 4-1 ATS at home at least. With a total of 43.5, the Raiders have gone over in six of their last seven at home, and the Broncos have gone under in four of their last six on the road.

Denver have a huge upper hand on their AFC West rivals in recent years, going 7-3 SU (including seven in a row)  in their last 10, but Oakland has covered six times. In Oakland, the Broncos are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

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