The Broncos brought in Case Keenum at quarterback to help reboot an offense that put up just 18.1 points per game in 2017. A soft schedule should help. Denver plays just one road game all season against a playoff team (Chiefs) from last year.
Below you will find the Broncos’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds (at 5Dimes), 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 5-11 (-5.8 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 4-11-1 (-5.6 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: 0.2
2017 Win Total: 8 (+120)
2018 Win Total (pre-schedule): 7.5 (-150)
2018 Strength of Schedule: T-25, opponents were 122-134 (.477)
Three Games to Back ATS
Seahawks, Week 1 & Raiders, Week 2
Sports Authority Field at Mile High is most advantageous for the Broncos in the first couple of home games each season. The thin air takes a toll on visiting starters who have yet to get game fit, as more and more franchises coddle first-teamers in the preseason for fear of injuries. Since 1989, Denver is 28-6 SU and 22-10-2 ATS through Week 3 at home with a line in between a touchdown. The Seahawks are catching 2.5 points across most top-rated online sportsbooks for their Week 1 visit. Expect a similar number for the Raiders clash in Week 2.
@Jets, Week 5
Since 1992, the Broncos are 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus the Jets. They are covering a -1.4 average line by a whopping 7.3 points per game. Denver’s defense usually rules the day, yielding 15.5 points per contest. With New York unsettled at quarterback, expect another lackluster offensive showing.Three Games to Fade ATSChiefs, Week 4 & @ Chiefs, Week 8
Never mind the facts the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS since 2016 versus divisional opponents. Their rushing attack is kryptonite for head coach Vance Joseph’s squad. The Broncos went 0-7 SU and ATS against efficient run teams averaging better than 4.28 yards per carry in 2017. The results were beyond embarrassing. Denver loses by 16.3 points per game, despite kicking off just 0.4-point underdogs. Yikes. K.C. posted 4.7 yards per rush last season, and has averaged 4.2 or better every year under head coach Andy Reid.
@49ers, Week 14
San Francisco has won and covered the spread in four of the last five meetings not played at Mile High. Denver musters just 19.0 points per game in this spot, which will not be enough to better a Kyle Shanahan-led team.
Trap Game Potential
Browns, Week 15
Denver hosts the Browns in Week 15 after crisscrossing the nation with games at Cincinnati and San Francisco. Expect the team to not only be tired, but looking ahead to a pair of divisional dates (Raiders, Chargers) to close out the regular season. If the Browns can establish a strong running game, it would not shock to see them sneak their first road win since 2015.