Defensive Approach to Make 'Under' the Pick in 49ers-Redskins

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 3:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 3:52 PM UTC

RGIII didn’t do much to help Washington in week 11, and now they have to go to The City By The Bay and dance with the 49ers. Is San Francisco a wise NFL pick against this fading Redskins?

Odds Overview
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers (49ers -9½, 44, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). The San Francisco 49ers (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) welcome the Washington Redskins (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) to the brand new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara for an NFC interdivisional game the Niners really need to win with the Cardinals far ahead in the NFC West and the Seahawks tied with San Francisco at 6-4. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s 2014 Games of the Year NFL odds on this game had the 49ers as 7½-point Favorites—the same as last week’s Advanced Line—so you can see what everyone thinks about the Redskins right about now, with the line on this one opening up at 8½ and then moving to 9½ at the SuperBook by Tuesday afternoon.

Oddsmakers have made San Francisco -450 Favorites in the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, with Washington +350 Underdogs, while the Total Points in the game is set at 44. The 49ers Total Team Points is 26 while the Redskins Total Team Points is 18 (Skybet). A prop for this game: Highest Scoring Quarter has the 1st quarter priced at +160, the 4th Quarter at +375, the 1st Quarter at +500, the 3rd Quarter at +450 and a Draw at +700.


Washington Redskins
The Redskins are sort of a statistical enigma. There are few things in sports that are mystifying, but the fact that Washington ranks #7 in the NFL Passing, #16 Rushing, #11 against the Rush and #10 against the Pass, yet are a measly 3-7 SU and 3-7 ATS, makes very little sense. The Redskins are in the top half of the NFL in all four major stats which you think would end up with a winning team, yet Washington is 3-7 and is joked about now like the Raiders and Jaguars and this team has QB issues like they are the Jets or something. The Redskins started Robert Griffin III at QB last week against the mighty Buccaneers and the once-thought-to-be future of the franchise was 23-for-32 for 207 yards with a TD pass and 2 interceptions and a wimpy 73.3 QBR in an embarrassing 23-7 loss at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland.

With RB Alfred Morris (172 rushes, 701 yards, 6 TDs) and WRs DeSean Jackson (40 receptions, 819 yards, 4 TDs/20.5 ypc) and Pierre Garçon (43 receptions, 464 yards, 3 TDs) provide the Redskins offense a couple of decent players and the rankings reveal a team that can get things done when they have possession of the football. But the numbers and trends don’t lie when it comes to simply winning: Washington is 1-10 SU in in its L11 on the Road and just 3-8 ATS in those games. The Redskins are also 3-11 SU in their L14 against the 49ers, so picking the winner in this game definitely won’t be the issue.

On the injury front, Washington DE Chris Baker (shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (hamstring), LB Trent Murphy (knee) and G Shawn Lauvao (concussion) are all listed as Questionable for Sunday while T Trent Williams (leg) is Doubtful.


San Francisco 49ers
Like the Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers seem to be teetering from a team that can beat anyone on any given day to a team that always seems to be just a loss away from not being able to make the postseason. Drama seems to be part of this team’s make-up—as the last two games have reminded us—and as QB Colin Kaepernick goes, so seem to go the 49ers. Kaepernick (194 completions, 2,359 yards, 14 TDs), RB Frank Gore (648 yards, 2 TDs) and the rest of the San Francisco offense should seemingly have a field day with the down-and-out Redskins, but this is the NFL and strange things happen. The 49ers have been winning lately (14-5 SU L19) but at Home against the point spread (ATS), San Francisco has almost been a go-against of late, going 1-5 ATS in their L6.

San Francisco LB Dan Skuta (ankle) and WR Bruce Ellington (ankle) were both listed as Questionable for this game and this team has a number of talented players out injured including Patrick Willis, Glenn Dorsey, Chris Cook and Kendall Hunter.

Bettors in our forum are discussing their top lean so far for NFL this week 12

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
The trends definitely favor San Francisco in this one. The 49ers are 5-2-1 ATS L8 and 6-2-1 L9 at Home against the Redskins, although San Francisco is just 1-2-2 ATS L5 vs. Washington at Home. But the way Washington is playing, it’s hard to want to back this bunch and the early line movement in the week is an indication that the guys who bet sports for a living like the Home team here and with Washington an anemic 2-5-1 ATS in its L8 games and 2-6-1 ATS L9 Away, who can blame them? As far as the Total and trends, the Under is 9-4 in the L13 49ers games while the Under is 5-2 over the L7 games in this series.

Despite all the trends and momentum for this NFL pick, it’s just too hard to suggest backing San Francisco at -9½ at this particular point in time (late Tuesday), after it opened at 8½ and was 7½ in last week’s Advanced Line, and could continue to trickle up some more before publishing time and game time. So, with San Francisco needing the win here, expect the 49ers to play the same kind of intense defense it did last week against the Giants and find a way to score in the mid-20’s while holding Washington in the mid-teens. And, though barely, that translates to an Under.

Free NFL Pick: Under 44 at 5Dimes

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