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Cowboys vs. Seahawks: NFL Week 3 Picks & Game Predictions

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Cowboys vs. Seahawks: NFL Week 3 Picks & Game Predictions

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks go for their third win of the season when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and our betting pick.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 04:25 PM EDT at CenturyLink Field

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Time to bring in the quants. Comparing the following projections to the NFL odds will help us make the right choice:

FiveThirtyEight: Seahawks 62 percent

Equivalent Odds (using SBR’s Odds Converter): -163

The Seahawks opened as 4.5-point favorites; but over at FiveThirtyEight, they have the Seahawks as 3.5-point faves, leaving a 1-point gap between the projections and the actual NFL odds.

That 1-point difference is usually enough for us to not recommend opening up your wallet and/or purse and splashing some money around on the favorite. So what will it be, Human or Machine? Read on to find out.

Dallas Cowboys

Fumbles almost cost the Cowboys their game against the Falcons. Three of their first five drives resulted in fumbles, all in the first quarter and the Falcons got two touchdowns and one field goal from them. This fumble fest was unacceptable. Dallas can't have this three straight times to begin the game against a team like Seattle. They were lucky that it happened against Atlanta but they clearly have a lot of work to do. Giving the ball away many times to begin a game or at any point will result in a loss around 80 percent of the time.

The Falcons blew a 20-0 lead and their ineptness bailed the Cowboys out but the plays still had to be made. I have to give credit where credit is due, Dak Prescott (17.3 percent passing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders) made the plays. Prescott became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 400 yards and rush for three touchdowns in a single game and he inspired the Cowboys to be resilient.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson (59.5 percent passing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders) has never even received a first place vote for NFL MVP. He probably watched 'The Last Dance' and got inspired by Michael Jordan because he took that personally. Wilson threw for five touchdowns and the Seahawks beat the Patriots 35-30 in a Sunday Night Football thriller, delivering the final blow when their defense stopped Cam Newton at the goal line to secure the win.

The Seahawks carried over the momentum from their explosive aerial attack against the Falcons in Week 1. Wilson completed 21 of 28 passes for 288 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for 39 yards on five carries. The one-time Super Bowl champion has been precise when he's thrown the ball and he's made sharp reads, taking off with the ball when needed.

Prediction

The “Let Russ Cook” movement is off to a phenomenal start. Wilson has nine touchdowns and one interception that was not his fault over two games and just 11 incompletions. The key for Seattle will be to establish the run, just like they did against the Patriots. Seattle strayed away from the run game against Atlanta because Wilson was on fire but it was more effective against New England, keeping them on their toes.

The offensive line did a great job blocking for Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer, who ran with with aggression. The physicality they brought to the New England defense has to be replicated against Dallas. They did not fumble, which was crucial. Will they experience regression?

This will be the biggest test for the Cowboys, who know that they can't rely on last-second heroics from Dak Prescott and Greg Zuerlein once again. The Over is 13-3 in Dallas’ last 16 games following an ATS loss and 8-3 in Seattle’s last 11 games following an ATS win. I like the Over for my NFL picks. I see Wilson and Prescott getting enough points to help take this game over the total.

My Pick: Over 55.5 (-110) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

Over 55.5(-110)
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