Cowboys vs. Seahawks: Betting Odds Analysis & NFL Pick

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 8, 2014 6:47 PM GMT

The Dallas Cowboys will really be put to the test on Sunday afternoon when they travel to the Emerald City to face the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks in a game where the odds make a pick tough.

Odds Overview
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-8½, BetVictor, 47, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Sunday, (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): Exactly the same number as the -8½ Early Line talked about here in this space last week at Sportsbook Review, the 8½ point spread hung here makes perfect sense after Seattle’s 27-17 win and cover as 7-point favorites at the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl champion Seahawks (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) still look like world beaters but QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have really impressed this season although the Cowboys four wins have come at the hands of the fairly average Tennessee Titans, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints (in Dallas) and Houston Texans last Sunday, also in Big D. So, this NFC showdown at CenturyLink Field in Seattle will be good television (FOX), and be a heavily bet game but will more importantly tell us much about both teams’ expectations headed for the last near three-quarters of this NFL season. Should the Cowboys (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS in 2013) and head coach Jason Garrett (29-31-1 ATS) find a way to somehow upset the host and NFL champion Seahawks (16-3 SU, 13-6 ATS in 2013) and head coach Pete Carroll (47-27-1 ATS) here it would be quite the story (Moneyline (Winner) odds: Seahawks -400, Cowboys +150, Betfair Exchange) although most astute football fans are always waiting for schizophrenic Dallas to fold at some point every season and this game will be a massive test.

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Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been all about running the ball this season (#1 in NFL averaging 160.0 ypg) and RB DeMarco Murray (130 rushes, 670 yards, 5 TDs) has been the workhorse back and key cog to both creating a somewhat balanced attack on offense (Cowboys 16th in passing yards averaging 238.2 ypg) and trying to win the weekly Time of Possession battles. And you know this will definitely be a big test for the Bishop Gorman High School and Oklahoma product as Dallas will run the heck out of him and the Seahawks will remind him why they have one of the best defenses in NFL history—meaning Mr. Murray will be needing much ice come next Monday. If the Seahawks defense (#2 against the Rush averaging 72.3 ypg) can stifle Murray, then Romo (16-11 ATS as Road Underdog) will have to hope his main man TE Jason Witten (19 receptions, 215 yards) and WRs Dez Bryant (32 receptions, 376 yards, 4 TDs) and the surprising Jermaine Williams (16 receptions, 250 yards, 5 TDs) can come through against CB Richard Sherman & Co.

Health-wise, Dallas is in pretty good shape heading into this huge game with LBs Bruce Carter (quadricep) and Rolando McClain (groin) and DT Davon Coleman (calf) all listed as Day-To-Day while DT Amobi Okoye (illness) will be eligible for this game.

 

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have played a really tough schedule so far to open up the 2014 NFL season with a Week 1 game against the Green Bay Packers, a Week 2 date (and only loss) versus the upstart San Diego Chargers followed by a Super Bowl XLVIII rematch against the Denver Broncos in Week 3 before an Open Date and the MNF Week 5 win at Washington. So, the 4-1 Cowboys are just another fly to be swatted from Seattle’s perspective. QB Russell Wilson (15-5 ATS at Home) has been his always underrated and productive self both running the ball (18 rushes, 87 yards into MNF) and passing it (60 completions, 651 yards, 6 TDs) but he’s almost had to be with the WRs Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin both being held down to a degree and TE Zach Miller (ankle) out indefinitely. So, quite honestly, Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch (52 rushes, 234 yards, 3 TDs) could use a little help but this is a team who relies on its defense and special teams and punter Jon Ryan was absolutely brilliant against the Redskins on Monday.

Trend-wise, the Seahawks are 18-4-1 SU in their L23 Home games here in Seattle so using the Seahawks on the Moneyline in a parlay here is probably a good idea. Seattle has won 5 straight games at CenturyLink Field also, in what may be one of the NFL’s toughest environments for an opponent to now visit and you know the Seahawks faithful will be in full throat this weekend against the team that almost everybody loves to hate.

 

Best Approach
Some NFL betting trends support backing the visiting Cowboys here as Dallas is 5-2 ATS L7 against the Seahawks and 3-1 ATS L4 here in the Emerald City, but this game is one to probably best to just watch although the hosts could win by double digits and surprise nobody and Wilson’s aforementioned 15-5 ATS Home record at Home is a hard one to bet into. So, the point spread is right on, meaning the Total Points (47) needs examination with so few odds out on this game at press time (Monday night) with the Seahawks-Redskins game just completed (within the two hours). The Under is 7-3 ATS L10 in this series and the Under is 6-1 ATS L7 in Seattle and 4-1 the L5 ATS in this series in Seattle so with the Cowboys being so dependent on Murray and their running game and Seattle a little limited on offense and always seemingly needing big games from its defense, the Under 47 looks like the best way to go with Seattle winning by around a score of 27-17—the same score it beat the Redskins by on Monday night. In the end, this one will be all about how effective Cowboys RB Murray is at rushing the ball and his team’s ability to try to control the ToP and get 7s and 3s from their offensive drives. And that’s easier typed than done against this Seahawks D. Not a strong opinion and the Cowboys defense is pretty porous, but until Seattle starts getting TDs from its WRs, it will be hard to back the 'Over' with your NFL picks in Seahawks games, especially with Totals now closer to 50 than they are to 40.

NFL PICK: Under 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL PROPS PICK: Russell Wilson Anytime TD Scorer (Seahawks)