Cowboys vs. Packers NFL Picks: Weather Will Help To Keep a Low Score

Ted Sevransky

Friday, December 11, 2015 8:50 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 11, 2015 8:50 PM GMT

Our NFL handicapper checks the Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers game for Sunday. Read this betting preview that comes with a free NFL pick on the total, join us inside.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837194, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NFL Pick: Under 43
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
We tend to think of the Green Bay Packers as a high flying, high scoring offensive squad, primed to cash Overs in bunches. That has most assuredly not been the case for the Pack this season! Green Bay is 7-2 to the Under in their last nine ballgames. Their offense has produced 13 and 16 points in their last two at Lambeau Field, both low scoring losses that stayed Under the total by margin.

The Packers took advantage of friendly conditions at Ford Field last week – playing in a dome really helped Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps as Green Bay rallied from a 20 point second half deficit to steal the win. But Rodgers and his receivers have routinely struggled with the elements, failing to execute their gameplan in one bad weather game after the next. 

Green Bay’s loss to Chicago came in a driving rainstorm. They had bad weather in Carolina and bad weather in Denver. This is clearly the Packers weakest group of receivers since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting quarterback, and that weakness has been on full display in these bad weather games. As we saw so clearly against the Bears – with Green Bay getting four shots to win in the latter stages from a ‘First and goal’ situation – this limited receiving corps just can’t get open when their speed and quickness is hindered by wet turf. 

The weather is likely to be an issue once again this week, with heavy rain expected in Wisconsin on Sunday morning, likely to result in another sloppy, wet field. Remember, no Green Bay receiver has more than 656 receiving yards this season and five of their top seven pass catchers average less than ten yards per reception. Rodgers might have hit a 60 yard Hail Mary to win the game last Thursday, but the vast majority of his completions this year have been of the ‘dink and dunk’ variety. Green Bay’s 5.3 yards per play ranks well below the league average of 5.6. 

Matt Cassel gets another shot as the Cowboys starting QB this week after guiding the team to victory in DC on Monday Night. But Cassel has a grand total of two completions longer than 25 yards in his last three starts while throwing only one TD pass during that span. The Cowboys have produced 20 points or less in five of his six starts with the team this year. 

And, as we all saw on Monday Night, Cassel is not a particularly accurate quarterback, nor does he have a strong downfield arm. The Cowboys gameplan with Cassel behind center is the pound the ball on the ground with Darren McFadden and Robert Turbin, while relying on their defense to give them a chance in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay head coach Mike Montgomery has made it very clear that he wants to feed the ball to Eddie Lacy as much as possible moving forward. Here’s his postgame quote from last Sunday “I think Eddie's been rejuvenated.  His work was good today. I checked in on him just like I do with all the players, and I look for him to have a very good week of practice, and I look for him to be productive Sunday."

Both teams want to pound the rock between the tackles. One squad has a weak quarterback; the other squad has weak receivers. Both defenses are solid. And the weather is expected to be on the nasty side. Put it all together and we can expect a relatively low scoring affair that stays Under the total as the NFL pick against the NFL odds.

comment here