Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL Picks: Recent Trends Signal Low-Scoring Game

Kevin Stott

Sunday, November 22, 2015 12:40 AM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 12:40 AM UTC

Tony Romo is expected to return from his Collarbone Injury here for the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon against the Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens in a Week 11 game between two historic NFL teams hanging by a thread in the Regular Season.

Will Romo instantly make Dallas the team many thought it could be before the season started or will rust be a factor? Let’s take a look at Trends, recent scores, Injuries and any other relevant information for this game from the Sunshine State and then come up with two reasonable NFL picks.


Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday [18:00] (FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): QB Tony Romo (Probable) is expected to return here for the Dallas Cowboys (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) who travel to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens (Weather: Cloudy, possible Thunderstorms, 80°, SSW to 11 mph, 77% Humidity) in Week 11 on Sunday to face the Miami Dolphins (4-5 ATS, 4-5 ATS) in an inter-conference meeting between two historic NFL teams teams experiencing very difficult seasons. Current NFL odds have the visiting Cowboys as 1-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year line here was Dolphins -2½—with the Total (Points) posted at 46½ (Pinnacle). In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Cowboys are slight -111 favorites with the Dolphins priced at +101 on the takeback as Home underdogs. The Miami Dolphins Total Team Points has been set at 22½ (Ladbrokes) while the Dallas Cowboys Total Team Points is at 23½ (PaddyPower) for this game. This is one of those game which clearly shows how important a healthy QB is to a team’s chances of winning as well as the Point Spread.


Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys (200/1 to win Super Bowl, 888sport) have dug a hole so deep that only playing in the NFC East can save them and with starting QB Tony Romo (Collarbone) now officially back and more than likely starting here Sunday against the Dolphins, Dallas and its fans may have big expectations of an historic comeback but 2-7 heading into Week 11 play in the NFL is exactly as it sounds and anyone who thinks the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles haven’t been playing better football than America’s Team just hasn’t been watching the games. In Week 10, Dallas lost 10-7 at Tampa Bay and only managed 42 Rushing yards (RB Darren McFadden, 32 yards) and just 189 Passing yards (WR Dez Bryant, 5 receptions, 45 yards) against the somewhat lowly Buccaneers side in the Loss. So Head Coach Jason Garrett and Romo and TE Jason Witten (5 receptions, 24 yards vs. Bucs) will plug on under Cowboys Owner Jerry Jones when we all know this team is pretty much waiting for next season already.

On the Injury and Suspension front for Dallas, besides Eastern Illinois product Romo (Probable), WR Bryant (Knee), RB McFadden (Groin), S Barry Church (Ankle) and LB Sean Lee (Concussion) are also listed as Probable while DE Jeremy Mincey (Thigh) and LB Kyle Wilber (Toe) are Questionable for this game while DE Ryan Russell (Abdominal) and and WR Brice Butler (Hamstring) are both Out. Also, DT Terrell McClain (Toe), OL Chaz Green (Hip), RB Lance Dunbar (Hip), LB Mark Nzeocha (Knee) and CB Orlando Scandrick (Knee) are all now on the Injured-Reserve List for the Cowboys.


Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins (150/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) and their new Head Coach Dan Campbell—Joe Philbin was fired last month with a poor showing in London being the final straw for management—had a nice Win in Week 10, upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia, 20-19 as QB Ryan Tannehill (21/36, 217 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Interceptions) and the Miami Offense once again got a nice multi-purpose game from RB Lamar Miller who had 43 Rushing yards (16 rushes, TD) and 50 Receiving yards (6 receptions) in the victory at Lincoln Financial Field in the City of Brotherly Love and Santa Claus Booers last weekend. Tannehill (14-12-1 ATS at Home) also got a monster game from emerging WR Rishard Matthews (5 receptions, 93 yards, TD, 18.6 ypc) and Jarvis Landry (7 receptions, 53 yards, TD) while Ndamukong Suh (10 Tackles, Sack) and the Dolphins Defense played a very solid game. On the Injury front for Miami here against the Cowboys, CB Brent Grimes (Ribs), CB Bobby McCain (Knee), RB Damien Williams (Ankle) and G Jamil Douglas (Shoulder) are all listed as Probable here while LB Koa Misi (Abdominal), T Ja’Wuan James (Knee), LB Spencer Paysinger (Neck), LB Jelani Jenkins (Ankle) are all listed as Questionable for Sunday while DE Dion Jordan (Suspension) is out for the season while S Louis Delmas (Knee) and DE Cameron Wake (Achilles) sit on the Injured-Reserve List for the Fish.


Recent Series Trends and Best Betting Approach
When these two teams last met, the Cowboys won 20-19 in Big D but failed to cover as 7-point favorites in 2011 while the last meeting here in South Florida saw Dallas roll to a 37-20 win in 2007 as a 3½-point favorite. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had the Dolphins lined as 2½-point chalks in this game. The Cowboys have now L7 straight games after falling to the Buccaneers and most of the Totals Trend point to the Under and it would be easy to get on that bandwagon if Romo (Probable) wasn’t returning and America’s Team wasn’t so desperate. Anyway, the Under is 12-4-1 ATS the L17 Dolphins games in the month of November while the Under is 7-0-1 ATS the L8 Miami games in Week 11 but probably the strongest Trend here is the Final Scores in the L8 meetings in this series in which only two games (57, 61) have seen more than 39 points scored (39, 20, 39, 30, 31, 34 in the other 6).

The last meeting here in Miami Gardens in South Florida at Sun Life Stadium (Grass) saw Dallas roll to a 37-20 win in 2007 with the game soaring over the closing Total of 40, but even with Romo back and Sunny skies, it seems getting up and over that 47 or 47½ may be tough for a rusty team and another looking to protect its Home soil. Dallas is 9-4 ATS in its L13 games played on Grass (Sun Life Stadium) and the Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their L8 in November while the Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their L8 in the month. This one should be close throughout with a TO possibly causing the game-winning score late in the 4th Quarter. This one is a toss-up and maybe best bet from the Totals market where 47½ (Under -133, bet365) may be worth a small play as well as the game’s 1st Quarter Under (9 -120, PaddyPower).

Predicted Final Score: Dolphins 24 Cowboys 20

NFL Picks: Under 47.5 (bet365), 1st Quarter Under 9 -120 (PaddyPower)

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