Cowboys vs. Chiefs Week 11 Picks: Back Big D at Arrowhead

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 18, 2021 4:39 AM EST • 1 min 57 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The total for this marquee matchup is the highest on the Week 11 board. Find out if we think these offenses are set to explode in our Cowboys and Chiefs picks.

Two of the NFL's biggest star quarterbacks face off Sunday in what could be the game of the 2021 NFL season. The 7-2 Dallas Cowboys head to Arrowhead Stadium and meet the 6-4 Kansas City Chiefs, who have won three straight. Considering the high profile of each franchise, this should be the hottest game for bettors in Week 11.

The Cowboys have been dominant with an 8-1 against the spread record, while the Chiefs have been terrible ATS over the last two years.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Cowboys and Chiefs (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday November 21, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MOWeather: 56 degrees, sunny

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis

This line has held steady at Kansas City -2.5 across most books. There's a ton of interest in this battle thanks to the awesome star power on each side, likely canceling out any line movement.

The Over/Under has risen from 52.5 to an astonishing 56, with a 56.5 total even being available on some sites. Take advantage of that movement while you can. Despite the high total, the SBR consensus shows the majority of bettors are backing the Over.

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Picks

Cowboys +2.5 (-105) ?????Under 56.5 (-110) ??

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Predictions

Cowboys +2.5 (-105)

The Cowboys have sustained a ton of injuries this season and this may finally be the game where it haunts them. But for us to get points on the clearly better team means oddsmakers believe the Chiefs will break out despite their own internal issues. Or they're not buying into the Cowboys' streak of eight wins in nine games where they beat only two winning teams.

The Chiefs are coming off a big win against Las Vegas but their performance is inconsistent at best. Their defense has their work truly cut out for them. I simply can't trust the Chiefs' 23rd-ranked pass defense and 18th-ranked run defense will stop the best overall group of offensive playmakers in the league.

Dallas not only covers, but the moneyline is also a great value, so we are going with the road underdogs in our Cowboys and Chiefs picks.

Under 56.5 (-110)

Expectations are for this to be a replica of the epic Chiefs-Rams 2018 battle that ended 54-51. It's incredibly rare for those explosions, and these offensive matchups usually fall short of a rising total. This line has gone too far up and we must fade the public.

The Chiefs have gone Under in four of their last five games and Dallas has done so in three consecutive. This may be a zig to the public's zag, but the trends don't lie.