Cowboys' SU Record Without Romo Makes Bills -6 The NFL Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 24, 2015 3:13 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 24, 2015 3:13 PM UTC

In this article, our NFL handicapper previews next Sunday's Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills game and provides his Crusher of the Week NFL pick.

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NFL Pick: Bills -6

Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-6) 1:00 EST
Each week in this space, we list our NFL Crusher of the Week. It is a team which I expect to outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards in the game. NFL teams who have done that this season are 116-38 ATS (75%); that is exactly on the average of over 3,000 games this millennium. 

Today’s game features the Dallas Cowboys as they travel to visit the Buffalo Bills for this 1 o’clock Eastern Time kickoff. With losses by each of these teams the last week, they are each eliminated from NFL playoff contention. But a snap shot of the seasons of each of these teams, as well as the current realities of this game, indicate why the Buffalo Bills qualify as our NFL Crusher of the Week.

It is a well-publicized fact that the Cowboys are now 1-9 SU with no Tony Romo in the lineup. Today, they hand the ball to former Boise State star, QB Kellan Moore. He will be making his first start at the Northern venue of Buffalo in December. Last Saturday night, the Cowboys hosted the New York Jets. The 19-16 New York victory, a tie or ATS win for Cowboy backers, saw Dallas outrush the Jets 173-73. But four critical interceptions by the Jets sealed the fate of the Cowboys. Now, they are asked to travel to Buffalo for their final road game of the season. Asking QB Moore to step into this situation is far too much for a team who may be the epitome of a towel tosser these last two weeks. 

Last week, the Bills traveled to Washington where they endured a 35-25 defeat. This came despite the fact they ran AND passed for 200+ yards, while outgaining the Redskins overland 240-123. The loss finalized the fact that it was the 16th consecutive year that the Bills have missed the playoffs. It also, however, emphasized the fact that the Bills have the #1 ground game in the NFL. That unit rushes the ball 30 times per game for an average of 149/4.9. As has been true in recent years, any NFL team who runs the ball 30 times or more per game, while their opponent does not, is 113-14 ATS on any given Sunday. Should the Buffalo Bills stick to their game plan, they have an excellent chance to outrush the Cowboys by 30 yards or more this game, providing them with the impetus to fulfill their role as our NFL Crusher of the week. 

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me with my NFL pick this Sunday on the Buffalo Bills as the Crusher of the Week.

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