It’s our third installment of the Countdown to Kickoff series here at Sportsbook Review, and after posting picks on the passing yards for Aaron Rodgers, and rushing yards for Adrian Peterson, it’s time to switch gears from season player props, to player future odds.
It should come as no surprise that Drew Brees at +350 is the favorite to win this award. He has only led the league in passing yards three straight seasons and in five of the last seven years. Brees has earned this honor a total of seven times in his career, so basically Brees is the guy to beat.
Is Brees Safe?
After winning three straight seasons, one would think that Brees is a big lock to win this award. When you get a glimpse of that +350, you almost forget about some of the Saints’ problems, and some of the qualities of the other QBs that have even bigger NFL Odds.
For starters, Brees’ offensive line is looking kind of questionable heading into the season. He will be without his starting left tackle for the first month or two of the season, and his starting center is coming off major surgery and has not played at all in the preseason.
Teams have overcome those kinds of odds before, and if anyone can do it, it’s Brees. However, there are some other guys on the list that might be worth a shot if you want to hedge your Brees bet.The Sharp Pick
If you’re looking for a duo or trio to put Brees in to hedge your bet some, the next best guy on this list in my eyes is Aaron Rodgers at 7/1. His total for passing yards in the season is just 4300 from Bovada, and we’ve already released an over play on him already.
However, with his healthy stable of weapons, and an unproven running back in Ty Montgomery, the Packers might end up throwing it close to 600 times again. If that’s the case, Rodgers could threaten Brees if his yards per attempt numbers are back closer to his career averages.
Another guy potentially worth a shot is Matt Ryan at 10/1. He threw for almost 5000 yards in 2016 and while the Falcons run the ball a lot more than either the Saints or Packers, it’s still a very intriguing number of +1000.
A unit play on all three of them would guarantee profit either small or large if one of them were to lead the league in passing, and while guys like Tom Brady at +550 and Derek Carr at +800 are lurking, in my eyes, Brees, Rodgers and Ryan are the only three quarterbacks that truly have a shot at this one.
The thing that makes Brees stand out other than history is his defense. Compared to the other guys high on this list, the Saints’ defense is not as good as the others, meaning their potential to be throwing more goes up. Last season the Saints’ defense gave up 28.4 points per game, and they haven’t gotten that much better on that side of the ball.
My money is on Brees, simply because the volume will still be there, and his weapons should be restored in full once Willie Snead comes back from his suspension. However, I understand completely if you want to hedge that chalky bet a little.Free NFL Pick: Brees (+350)Best Line Offered: at Bovada