The New Orleans Saints are poised to be one of the more prolific offenses in the NFC, and probably the entire NFL as well. One of their additions over the offseason was Adrian Peterson, but even with the surfeit amount of weapons on offense Bovada sportsbook still has Peterson’s total for rushing yards this season at 750.
Remember, Mark Ingram?
There are several issues with Bovada having Peterson’s total that high, and the biggest one is Mark Ingram. While Ingram doesn’t rack up 20 touches per game, he usually is around the 15-to-18 range when it comes to rushing attempts, and opportunity on third down.
While Peterson will get his touches, at age 32, can you really expect him to get 20 touches, or even play in all 16 games this season for New Orleans?
Peterson has played in a total of just 20 games in his last three seasons. Sure, he looked amazing two years ago in 2015, but in an offense that is much more pass oriented, and behind a younger back on the depth chart, there is no way Peterson gets the 200 or so carries he’ll need to cash the over on this prop. **See All Seven Props Summary Here**
The Sharp Pick
Speaking of a high-volume passing attack, the Saints pass as much as almost anyone. Last year Drew Brees ran away with the passing yards crown, and he is the favorite to do it again this season.
On top of that, New Orleans ranked 16th in rushing yards and 19th in rush attempts last season. That’s not going to change with a 32 year-old Peterson coming in. Peterson is going to have a few roles on this team, and it’s not going to be touching the ball more than 10-12 times per game and being used as a inside the 20 yard line back.
Peterson will likely vulture touchdowns away from Mark Ingram, which will upset all the fantasy owners of the world, but the Saints will bring him in on second and short, as well as first and goal. That should be his role.
I touched on this in the opening article of this series, but to get 751 or more yards out of Peterson, you’ll need him to get 188 carries at four yards per attempt. That is only 12 carries per game, but with that you have to hope that he plays in all 16 games and he can still average 4 yards per carry at age 32.
Plus, he is running behind a questionable offensive line. The Saints lost Terron Armstead in training camp and he will miss the first several games of the 2017 season, and center Max Unger is making his way back from major surgery with no preseason action.
Is this the o-line you expect Peterson to get 12 carries a game at four yards per carry? Not with my money you’re not.
Countdown to Kickoff Prop Pick: UNDER 750 (-125) @ Bovada