The Green Bay Packers have been one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL over the last few seasons when it comes to injuries. Last year Jordy Nelson went down before the year even started, but this season everyone is healthy, they have a reloaded offense, and Aaron Rodgers is still their quarterback.
Less Passing Volume? No Way!
Last season with all the injuries and inconsistency of the running game, the Packers and Rodgers had to throw a lot. Rodgers let it loose a career-high 610 times, and he ended up with almost 4500 passing yards.
With the buffet line that was Eddie Lacy gone and Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael taking over at running back, there is a chance that the running game improves enough to where Rodgers can drop back to the 500-550-pass attempt range.
However, there is another school of thought at work here as well. With Nelson healthy, Randall Cobb looking poised for a bounce-back, and Davante Adams a constant threat to take one to the house, the Packers could pass more this season than they did in 2016. Those are three very deadly receivers.
Martellus Bennett has also been added to the mix. All these weapons, along with a solid pass catcher in Montgomery, and we are about to see another 600 pass attempts from Rodgers this season.
The Sharp Pick
Even further, Rodgers posted only 7.26 yards per pass attempt last season. Coming into 2016 he had career yards per attempt of just over 8. If we can get that kind of efficiency, combined with his completion percentage hopefully staying around 65 percent, this is an easy over play for me.
Assuming we get 550-pass attempts and 8 yards per attempt, that’s 4400 yards right there. Those predictions may be low too if Rodgers is moving back up the ladder to his 2009-2011 run where he averaged almost 9 yards per attempt.
In a division with the Lions and Vikings improving, and the Bears probably being better than expected this season, Rodgers and company are going to be in some shootouts this season. Combine that with games against the Seahawks, Falcons, Cowboys, Saints, and Steelers, and you have a passing bonanza about to happen in Green Bay.
I would not be surprised to see Rodgers top 4500 passing yards this season, and with all his weapons and tough games, take the over at Bovada with the not-too-chalky price on their betting odds boards.My Prop Pick: OVER 4300 (-115) @ Bovada