Complete Over/Under Game-by-Game NFL Picks & Predictions For Week 3

Dak Prescott throwing the football

Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:28 PM GMT

Week 3 is heating up across NFL betting markets and we’ve got you covered in this weekly column for over and under NFL picks in each and every game. Find out how we line up our totals.

NFL Week 2 Betting Recap
While we scored big for a second straight week with SU and ATS pick in this weekly column, the over-under NFL picks took a beating in week 2. Good as we did with the former, both finishing 12-4, it was a real sweat to finish a modest 6-10 finish for week 2 totals. Fortunately, a good week 1 keeps us in the green with our season record that stands at 16-15-1 for total bets (See below).

 

Nikki Adams Game-by-Game Picks Week 2 and Overall Season Record 
Week 2 SU: 12-4-0          (Season Total: 25-7-0)
Week 2 ATS: 12-4-0        (Season Total: 24-8-0)
Week 2 Total: 6-10-0      (Season Total: 16-15-1)

With that recap out of the way – no excuses, just simply truth and transparency, the hallmarks of a reputable betting site – we turn to week 3 and our choice NFL picks against total NFL betting lines. Let’s get cracking.

 

Thursday, September 22, 2016
 

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Week 3 in a nutshell: No Tom Brady (obviously). No Jimmy Garoppolo (maybe?). No Rob Gronkowski (potentially again). No problem (right?). Well, so far so good. Week 3 ushers in a new challenge for Bill Belichick with a third-string quarterback starting, Jacoby Brissett. The rookie was thrown into week 2 at the halfway point and did relatively well all things being considered, underlining the genius that is Belichick and the awesomeness of the Patriots. Yet, the markets have turned sour on the Patriots as they enter Thursday Night football at the disadvantage. That’s changed since doors opened a little bit but not enough just yet. The total line which opened at 41-points is headed south though, with one-sided betting on the UNDER. That’s largely down to the Texans defense and the respect they’ve earned in public NFL betting circles. What about the Patriots offense? Doesn’t it deserve respect? If we take Belichick at his word – he’s got no reason to lie – Brissett, the proverbial next-man-up, is ready.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 39.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Sunday, September 25, 2016
 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills
There was nothing shy about Carson Palmer and the Cards O-line in week 2. Firing on all cylinders they put up 40 points (the second highest tally by a single team in week 2) at the expense of the highly-touted Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If the Cards plan on showing up in similar fashion in Buffalo, Rex Ryan, and the Bills have a lot to worry about. On the strength of the Cards offense, the total for this game is trading at a high of 47 since opening doors without so much of a budge either way off of this key number. Cards have gone UNDER in both weeks 1 and 2, although in week 1 it was their suspect offense that contributed to the game going under while in week 2 it was their opponent’s lack of offense that did the trick. How week 3 goes is anybody’s guess but we’re chancing the OVER on our NFL picks, effectively going against the public that appears to be pounding the UNDER.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 47 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans
The Raiders top the charts with the league’s best offense? Well, so say the total offense stats that has Oakland in first place with 940 yards and an average of 31.5 points scored. Let’s see how that offense fares against a defense that is no slouch. Consider the Titans held the Vikings to four field goals and the Lions to just 15 points, Derrek Carr and his O-line will face a new challenge to move the ball.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 47 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage where you will find a 50% Cash Sign Up Bonus

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Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Rookie quarterback Cody Kessler is set to lead the Browns into week 3 and a date with the Dolphins that have made minced meat of two quarterbacks already – Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s enough to make anybody think about trotting out onto a field with the Fins, never mind stare down their defense. On the flip side, the Dolphins offense with Ryan Tannehill is mercurial and unpredictable. Sensible probably to go with the UNDER on your NFL picks given all these uncertainties.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 42.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s easy to react to the awful account Blake Bortles and the Jaguars O-line endured in San Diego and forge the offensive showdown with the Packers in week 1. Equally, it’s understandable to have mixed feelings about the Ravens and their come-from-behind win over the Browns, aided largely along by a timely injury to Josh McCown, and overlook the stout defensive account over the Bills in week 1. Both teams have deposited two games in the first weeks of the NFL that couldn’t be more polar opposite. So it’s a right tossup.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 47 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
The Lions and Packers renew hostilities for the first time this season when they kick off at Lambeau. The Lions stunned the Packer last season 18-16 on the road, but Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary pass at Ford Field to seal the seemingly improbable 27-23 win takes the cake. What will the narrative be this time around? Both are coming off losses in week 2, in which offense visibly struggled for different reasons. Stafford’s loss to the Titans was pitiful in the eyes of many NFL bettors, a poor follow-up to the shootout win in Indianapolis in week 1. Rodgers and his offense weren’t on the same page, but they did face a divisional foe that boasts one of the stoutest defenses. Maybe there is room to make allowances for one of the worst games by No.12 in recent memory then. In the event, an offense is sure to be the focus in practice this week for both teams. They need to get on the same page. Could be a right cracker.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 48 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy is 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS on the season. Total betting is split on a 1-1 record through two games. However, there're lots to be worried about if you’re a Bengals fan. Cincy may be inside the top ten with the total offense but they’re not turning those yards into meaningful points (19 per game). Defense is leaking yards in equal proportion but conceding slightly more points (23 per game). Put that against a stingy Denver defense that is allowing just 20 points per game and, at the same time, scoring as well and contributing to the 27.5 points scored on average in a Denver game this season. Think Andy Dalton just may have a rough day in the office. It’s worth mentioning, he’s been sacked 8 times already.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 41 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton and the Panthers put up 46 points in a comprehensive beat down over the San Francisco 49ers, a side that had just held the Rams to a bagel in week 1. Talk about finding your mojo. Sam Bradford is coming off a stellar debut in Minnesota and a 17-14 win over the Packers that seals his welcome addition to the Vikings organization. With Sam Bradford at the helm, the Vikings are starting to take a bit of a different look. As well, the run game looks like it might be short changed at the weekend if Adrian Peterson is ruled out (no word yet from Zimmer. Surprise, surprise.) All and sundry are betting the UNDER it seems at early doors (according to SBR Consensus Betting polls the UNDER ticket features in 87.5% of total betting on this game). When everyone sees something, the opposite is often going to happen. Sometimes, it pays to have a contrarian NFL betting strategy.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 42.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants
It must feel like standing on quicksand, all of a sudden. Starting 0-2 SU on the season with a quarterback that’s misfiring something huge is enough to sink a campaign in the eyes of many NFL bettors. If the Redskins don’t turn things around soon, nobody is going to like it, least of all the organization’s powers-that-be and a nation’s capital that is hankering after playoff football. Look it’s not done yet. Hope springs eternal. Perhaps, a good old fashioned divisional rivalry is needed to perk up the Redskins. Wait, they faced the Cowboys last week. That didn’t go down well. Hmmm…27-23 loss, was it? Following a 38-16 loss to the Steelers in week 1 at home. Back-to-back home losses. Now a road game in NY, where the Giants defense suddenly looks to be a factor. A bit of a worry for Kirky.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 47 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everybody is all over the Rams and the so-called stunning victory over the Seahawks. What exactly is so stunning about scoring 9 points and ZERO touchdowns. Granted the defense held the Seahawks to just three points, but Russell Wilson is injured, people. Hobbling on foot. Surely, that had a lot to do with Sunday’s meager account. In any event, it’s not surprising the public is firmly UNDER the total for this game, which is currently trading at 42. Avoid the obvious, if you will. That’s usually a rewarding NFL betting strategy.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The NFC West showdown between the Niners and Seahawks isn’t what it used to be. It’s anybody’s guess what it will yield this Sunday after the mixed accounts this notorious pair individually deposits in two weeks. Above we mentioned avoiding the obvious being a profitable NFL betting strategy. In this case, a gimpy Russell Wilson and an O-line that has no identity coupled with a suspicious Niners side that’s yet to reveal it’s true colors under Chip Kelly has us equally conservative. Swimming against the tide is difficult.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 41 -110 
Best Line Odds: at 5Dimes

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NY Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Jets offense lit up the scoreboard in week 2 and Ryan Fitzpatrick had one of his best games. This is not just a team built around a solid defense but also a lethal offense with plenty of targets for Fitzpatrick to choose from. Indeed, following week 2 the Jets improved to fourth in total offense with an average of almost 30 points per game. (As it is, Jets are conceding 27 points per game but expect that number to whittle down as the defense tightens up. The Chiefs came crashing back down to earth in Houston behind a sloppy and clumsy effort. It wasn’t a good day in the office for Alex Smith and the Chiefs. They’ll be looking to bounce back in week 3 at home to the Jets. This could be a right cracker that goes against the grain.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 42 -106 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Two elite quarterbacks that can litter the stats sheets and score with abandon. Two defenses that leave much to be desired more often than not. That’s a recipe for a good old-fashioned shootout. Bring out the popcorn and settle in for a score fest.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 51 -110 
Best Line Offered: TheGreek

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Steelers are off to a flying start behind a 2-0 SU and ATS mark, as are the Eagles. A lot is being made about the Eagles catching a break with the Browns and Bears on the NFL schedule, which is a valid point that takes some of the shine off Carson Wentz and Company. Certainly, it puts to question the 29 points per game they are averaging on the scoreboard and to some extent the 12 points they are giving up per game. The Steelers will put those stats to the test, you’d think. It’s a legitimate offense with Ben Roethlisberger calling the shots and an underrated defense that is giving up just 16 points per game.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 47 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys
Brian Hoyer is likely to start in place of an injured Jay Cutler (sprained thumb). This could be good news for the Bears faithful, or not. Dallas Cowboys are buoyed by their first win of the season on the road, beating the hapless Redskins 27-23 on Sunday. Returning to AT&T, Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys will look to make it two in a row against a Bears defense that is middling at best but giving up 26 points per game on average.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 45 -105 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
 

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Monday, September 26, 2016

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
The MNF showdown between the Falcons and Saints hangs on the highest total of the week. Consider it’s on a steady incline, it’s quite likely this game will be bet up to new heights before closing doors. Understandably, the OVER is the popular NFL pick considering the offense prowess of Matt Ryan and Drew Brees combined with suspect defenses in both camps. At one point, though, the total might just be bet up too high and the UNDER will start to look like the choice NFL pick. As it is, we’re leaning towards the UNDER 53.5 because if there’s one thing we can take from week 2 is a much improved defensive account by the Saints at MetLife. If the Saints can take those improvements to the Superdome they could very well thwart total bettors that are pounding the OVER.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 53.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: 
at Just Bet

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