Both of these props are courtesy of Bet365.
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The Colts’ have been a crazy team to watch this season. One week you think they can win the Super Bowl, and the next you think that there are different guys under those helmets. The loss of Reggie Wayne has really hurt them, and the acquisition of Trent Richardson so far has been a bust.
However one small bright spot for the team has been the play of forgotten former 1st rounder, Donald Brown. Over the last three games, Brown has slowly accounted for over half of the Colts’ backfield production, and has taken nearly half of Richardson’s touches. Brown has averaged 59 yards from scrimmage over the last three games, and with NFL odds offering a yards total tonight of 54 ½, I think the over has great value.
The Colts are going to want to run the ball on the Titans, who are giving up a lot of yards on the ground this season. Tennessee has given up over 125 yards per game on the ground in their last four games, and if they had not played the Jaguars last week, that number would be much higher.
This prop is reliant on Richardson coming out of the gate cold and Brown spelling him as early as possible. Brown already gets all of the third down work, which netted him enough receiving yards alone last week to cash this prop. I see him getting ten or more touches in this game regardless of how Richardson is playing, and for the over to have the value.
My Pick: Donald Brown OVER 54 ½ total yards (-110)
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We hit this same prop on this same player two weeks ago, and I think the value is good enough this week to warrant another wager. Shonn Greene has established himself as the best goal line and short yardage tail back on the Titans, and with Chris Johnson only showing up once in a blue moon, I see Greene getting into the end zone on the short week.
While a lot of it depends on the play of Ryan Fitzpatrick as well, the Colts haven’t exactly been the pinnacle of defensive excellence in the last three of four weeks. Indy has given up nearly 29 points per game over the last four weeks, and the last two weeks were against Case Keenum and Kellen Clemens. Plus, the price for Greene to score a TD is once again north of +200, and I love the value.
I don’t think Fitzpatrick will have too many problems getting the ball down the field. Even if Johnson is playing well, once the Titans get inside the 10-yard line, I think Greene will assume the role at a potential 1st and goal situation. Granted the first time around this season when Locker got hurt, the Titans were not great at their red zone efficiency, however the offense is still ok, even with Fitzpatrick under center. I don’t think his good performance last week was just because they played the Jaguars, and this week, I see him playing well again; getting the team into the red zone, so he can hand it to Greene for the score.
My Pick: Shonn Greene TD Scored (+220)Review our picks on this matchups bettign spread.