Colts vs. Titans NFL Picks: Luck/Mariota QB Matchup Expected to Go 'Under' 46

Jason Lake

Friday, September 25, 2015 5:44 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 5:44 PM UTC

The Indianapolis Colts are the lowest scoring team in the NFL after two weeks. Naturally, people are putting the OVER in their NFL picks for Sunday's game in Nashville.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 26: 11-6 ATS; 0-1 ML (–1.00 units); 4-5 Total

It takes two points to draw a straight line. So now that the Indianapolis Colts have honked both their games thus far, is it safe to assume they're going to suck all year long? Of course not. People are still jumping on the Colts to beat the Tennessee Titans this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) as 3-point road faves, and they're pounding the OVER at a 72-percent clip, driving the total from 45 to 46 points on our NFL odds board.

Wishful thinking? Perhaps. The Colts offense has been absolutely brutal this year, but Marcus Mariota and the Titans have done very well for themselves. We'd have no problem putting Tennessee in our NFL picks against the spread, but that's not what we're here for today. It's total time, ladies and germs. Buckle up.


Bortles > Luck
The numbers look awful for the Colts. They've scored 21 points after two games, the fewest in the league by far, and the UNDER had no trouble cashing in both times as a result. Indy's offense ranks No. 29 in the league in terms of efficiency, as per Football Outsiders, and QB Andrew Luck is No. 28 at his position on the DVOA charts. That's five spots behind Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles.

Luck isn't the only one struggling. New RB Frank Gore has 88 yards on 23 touches; he ranks No. 36 in DVOA out of the 41 running backs who have carried the ball at least 16 times. Have these Pro Bowlers run out of gas? Possibly, in Gore's case, but as usual, we're pointing our fickle finger at the offensive line – and this is why we're not bullish on a Colts revival. Where is the help coming from? Indianapolis hasn't emphasized the O-line at the draft, and this year's front five is a makeshift pile of whatsit.


Every Season Starts at Dick's 
Standing across from that pile on Sunday will be one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans already have six sacks this season, and they're third in the league in adjusted sack rate at 10.7 percent. Dick LeBeau is already working his magic after joining Tennessee as an associate head coach, bringing the defense to go with Ken Whisenhunt's offense.

There's also a 25-percent chance of added misery for the Colts this week, in the form of rain over Nissan Stadium. Every little bit helps. It's possible that Mariota and the Titans will do a number on Indy's pass defense, which sits at No. 29 on the DVOA charts and will be missing CBs Greg Toler (neck) and Darius Butler (hip) this week, although CB Vontae Davis (concussion) has been cleared to play. We'll recommend a small wager on the UNDER anyway, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Take UNDER 46 at WagerWeb

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