Colts vs. Patriots NFL Picks: Sunday Night's Total Odds a bit Inflated

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 18, 2015 2:07 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 2:07 PM GMT

The biggest total on the Week 6 NFL odds board is for Sunday night's matchup between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. Is this an auto-bet on the UNDER?

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 16: 18-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-19 Total
 

Welcome back to the scene of the crime. We pulled a fast one when it came to our NFL picks for Sunday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC), taking the middle with both the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts. It's a small window to fit through, especially when the vigorish is factored in, but we'll gladly hedge our bets with Andrew Luck's right shoulder still a mystery.

Too bad we can't middle the total. But we're more than happy to bet the UNDER with the total sitting at a ginormous 54.5 points on our NFL odds board at press time. Our consensus reports show a slight lean toward the OVER, but the total is down from 55 at the open, so we can posit that the sharps were putting bigger bets on the UNDER. Or maybe the books just want to get even more of that sweet, sweet action on the OVER when the public comes in. Or both, who knows. Watch out for those false binary choices.

 

When Cameron Was in Brady's Land
For what it's worth, Luck put in a full practice on Friday, which would suggest he'll be under center on Sunday. This might be good for our purposes. Luck obviously has a higher ceiling than Matt Hasselbeck, but Luck's play during the first three games was substantially worse than his back-up's. How much of that was his shoulder and how much the Colts offensive line remains in question. We know the line has been working out the bugs – now let's see if Luck can make the throws.

Meanwhile, the Patriots offense has some injury problems of its own. We've told you about LT Nate Solder, who's out for the year with a torn biceps. OT Cameron Fleming has been called up from the practice squad to provide some depth; Fleming failed to make the 53-man roster this year after playing seven games as a rookie in 2014. On top of that, RB Dion Lewis (abdomen) has been listed as questionable, although it appears he'll play despite putting in a limited practice on Friday.

 

I Can't Drive 55
Of course, we can't ignore the fact that each of the last seven meetings between these two teams went OVER, usually in epic fashion. You should only count the last four games, though, since that covers the Chuck Pagano-Andrew Luck Era in Indianapolis. And their most recent encounter in the AFC Championship Game would have gone UNDER Sunday's total when the Patriots won 45-7 (OVER 51.5).

Still, it's troubling enough that we're only recommending a small bet, despite the pumped-up total and the assorted injuries both offenses are dealing with. Even the one book that still has a 55-point total at press time can't make us pry open the vault. Gotta save those bigger bets for better opportunities ATS.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 55 (-106) at Marathon

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