Skip to main content

The weather is expected to be awful in Orchard Park on Sunday, leading us to back the Under in our Colts and Bills picks.

The Buffalo Bills (6-3 straight up) host the surging 5-5 Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon in a huge Week 11 game. The playoff race is starting to boil down to these head-to-head matchups, and the Bills are trying to hold home-field advantage and create space from their AFC East competition.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is clawing its way back into the playoff discussion with four wins in five games. The team's offensive performance has taken a sharp turn upward behind Carson Wentz and a powerful run game led by Jonathan Taylor.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Colts and Bills (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Colts vs. Bills Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1:00 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NYWeather: 45 degrees, rain

Colts vs. Bills Odds Analysis

The spread for this game opened at Buffalo -7.5 and has since dropped to -7 at most books. The moneyline has gotten more extreme toward Buffalo, though, rising from -300 to -330 on average. The Over/Under has also held steady at around 50 points.

It's clear to me the public likes the Bills but doesn't fully trust their advanced numbers. I'm with that boat, but do believe Buffalo has the ability to dominate this matchup.

Colts vs. Bills Picks

Buffalo -7 (-115) ????Under 50.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: Week 11 Parlay Picks

Colts vs. Bills Predictions

Buffalo -7 (-115)

Buffalo's team rankings are good enough to make you do a double-take, as the team ranks in the top 10 in every major offensive category and top three in several defensive categories. Yet, the Bills are 5-3-1 against the spread and have disappointed against quasi-contenders. They're tough to predict.

I still like Buffalo, though, as the Colts have a myriad of injuries and an overall scheme that doesn't match up well against Josh Allen. The Colts have beaten a string of bad teams recently and tend to lose their identity against better foes.

Buffalo can force the Colts into forgetting about the run and leaning on Wentz to do too much, which will lead to turnovers.

I like Buffalo to cover in my Colts and Bills picks, but consider buying this line down to -6.5 for safety.

Under 50.5 (-110)

The weather will be terrible for an offensive battle. We could see turnovers and dropped passes aplenty with the freezing rain coming down all afternoon long. Buffalo is treacherous this time of the year, and the Colts aren't used to playing outside of their dome in the cold.

It's nice we were afforded an extra point as the line moved. I'll happily take advantage of what the public has gifted us and back the Under.

SEE ALSO: Week 11 Underdog Picks

Picks made on 11/17/2021 at 11:58 p.m. ET.