Colts to Cover Short Number vs. Broncos in Thursday Finale Yawner

broncos colts

David Schwab

Wednesday, December 13, 2017 3:57 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017 3:57 PM UTC

The NFL kicks off Week 15 Thursday night with an AFC matchup between the 4-9 Denver Broncos and the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts in a battle between teams trying to put a positive spin on a highly disappointing season.

Free NFL Pick: Colts +2.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 40.5)

Denver’s issues at quarterback and with its offense in general have been too much to overcome this season, but the Broncos may have taken a step in the right direction Sunday’s 23-0 shutout of the New York Jets as 1-point home underdogs. The win snapped an eight-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread as part of their dismal 3-9-1 record ATS overall. The total stayed UNDER 40.5 points in Sunday’s win and has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in three of their last four games.

As noted, one of the main reasons for the Broncos’ demise this season has been the inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Three different players have taken turns trying to run the show, but it was Trevor Siemian under center in Sunday’s win against New York. He put the ball up 31 times with 19 completions for 200 yards. His top receiver in that game was Demaryius Thomas with eight catches for 93 yards and the lone passing touchdown of the game. Denver’s defense did its job by holding the Jets to 100 yards of total offense.

The Colts’ SU slide reached four games with Sunday’s 13-7 overtime loss to Buffalo in a blinding snow storm. They failed to cover as 3-point underdogs and the total stayed well UNDER the closing 37-point line. Indianapolis has failed to cover in its last three games to fall to 6-7 ATS on the year and the total has stayed UNDER in its last five games. Hosting this one, Indy has gone 4-2 ATS in six previous home games this season.

Jacoby Brissett has gone the distance for the Colts at quarterback with Andrew Luck rehabbing his shoulder, and the results on offense have reflected the loss of one of the league’s top passers. Under Brissett, Indianapolis is ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring with 16.3 points per game and 31st in total yards gained (290.7). Things do not get any better on the other side of the ball with a defense that is 30th in yards allowed (375.3) and 31st on points allowed (26.4).

Game Betting Trends
  • The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games, but following a SU win they have a record of 1-5-1 ATS over their last seven games. The total has gone OVER the closing spread in five of their last seven games played on the road.
  • The Colts have posted a 29-10 record ATS in their last 39 games when facing a team with a SU losing record and they are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 11 home games.
  • Indianapolis has covered ATS in nine of the last 10 meetings overall and it has a 6-0 record ATS in its last six home games against Denver. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 12 games.

The Verdict

While both of these teams are a mere shell of their recent glory days as two of the top teams in the AFC, the rivalry still exists in light of some of the epic battles staged between the two. My early lean for a NFL pick on SBR Odds' current numbers is towards the Colts and the OVER for Thursday night. This is in light of some of these recent head-to-head betting trends along with their higher level of play on their home field. Snow will not be a factor in a dome, and this time around I have Indy making the most of its home-field advantage.

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