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Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts warms up before the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images via AFP.

Both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans had some significant changes this offseason. Find out who we think did a better job in our Colts-Texans picks.  

The Colts traded for 15th-year veteran Matt Ryan to help quarterback their team. Ryan is no stranger to success in his time with the Atlanta Falcons as he led the team to six playoff appearances and three division titles. His most successful season was in 2016 when he was named Most Valuable Player (MVP) and made a Super Bowl appearance in Super Bowl LI.

The Texans promoted Lovie Smith to head coach. Smith is a well-respected coach with an 89-87 coaching record and an 84-94-4 against the spread record.

Here are our top NFL picks for Colts-Texans in Week 1 (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

Colts vs. Texans Game Info

Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Weather: 91 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph winds

Colts vs. Texans Odds Analysis

The Colts opened as 7.5-point favorites and have dropped only slightly to 7 points on some books. Bettors are strongly in favor of Indianapolis with 76% of the bets and 70% of the handle supporting the Colts to cover.

The Over/Under started at 44.5 points and has shifted slightly up to 45.5 across most books. Bettors are again aligned on the Over with 74% of tickets accounting for 80% of the handle. 

Colts vs. Texans Picks

Colts99

Colts vs. Texans ATS Pick

Texans +7.5 (-110) ★★★★

Colts fans will not only have their eyes on Ryan's debut but also on how their defense performs without former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. Ryan is coming off a season where he finished with 3,968 passing yards but only a 90.4 quarterback rating. 

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor led the league in rushing last year with 1,811 yards and the defensive-minded Smith will look to limit Taylor’s impact on the game. Texans quarterback Davis Mills will look to improve in his second year in the NFL. The Texans will look to cover after not being able to in four of the last five head-to-head matchups.

  Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.  

Colts vs. Texans O/U Pick

Under 45.5 (-110) ★★★

The biggest improvement for the Texans should be in the run game. Smith team's are built on good defense and controlling the clock on offense with the rushing game. Rookie Dameon Pierce, a fourth-round pick out of Florida, will take lead rushing duties.

Three of the last five meetings between these teams finished under 45.5 points. The two Overs finished with 46 and 47 points. Both of these teams will focus on the run, with Smith trying to control the clock with his new rookie running back and the Colts continuing to hand it to the best back in the league. 

Colts vs. Texans Prop Pick

Peirce Over 47.5 (-120) ★★★★★

As stated for the Under, the Texans are going to run the ball to control the clock. The Colts allowed 109.1 rushing yards per game last year and Pierce will get the bulk of the carries. I like him to exceed 47.5 yards.

Where to Bet on Colts vs. Texans Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Colts-Texans picks made 9/9/2022 at 9:21 a.m. ET