Colts 2018 NFL Schedule, Betting Breakdown: All Comes Down to Luck

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, April 24, 2018 4:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 24, 2018 4:05 PM UTC

Quarterback Andrew Luck’s status for 2018 is still unknown. Whether he suits up or not, a favorable home schedule should see Indy better a 4-12 mark in 2017. Here’s a look at the dates, including a few betting spots to target.

Below you will find the Colts’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.

2017 SU Record: 4-12 (-8.8 avg. margin)

2017 ATS Record: 8-8 (-3.3 avg. margin)

2017 Average Line: 5.5

2017 Win Total: 8 (+130)

2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 5.5 (-300)

2018 Strength of Schedule: T-22, opponents were 124-132 (.484).

2018-19 Schedule

Three Games to Back ATS

Bills, Week 7; Dolphins, Week 12; Giants, Week 16

No Luck, no problem for this situation. Since 2012, the Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium with Luck out hosting teams owning a negative average scoring margin from the prior season. This includes winning three of four against the Browns, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans in 2017. With Luck included, Indy is 22-8 SU and 18-11-1 ATS in this span.

Three Games to Fade ATS

@Redskins, Week 2; @Jets Week, 6; @Texans, Week 14

Minus Luck, the Colts are 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS away from home since 2012. The most profitable angle is to fade them against weaker defenses. Indy’s inability to put up points makes every unit look elite. Against those yielding 23.3 points or more the previous season, Indy is 1-6 SU and ATS, coming up a whopping 14.8 points shy of a 5.8 average line. The Colts struggle to 14.0 points on 268.1 total yards per game. They have lost five of their last six by two touchdowns or more. Indy fans are praying their franchise quarterback is back healthy for these “winnable” contests on paper.

Trap Game Potential

@Raiders, Week 8

Oakland yielded exactly 23.3 points per game last season, and most believe the unit will improve under head coach Jon Gruden. Add this meeting to the fade angle mentioned above. Moreover, the Colts are just 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS as road underdogs in the Pacific time zone since 1989. They lost 46-9 at the Rams as 4-point pups, and 46-18 catching 13 points at the Seahawks last season.

comment here