We are now entering the point in the 2016 CFB Season, in which we can use the AFP in combination with fundamental, statistical and situational handicapping, to isolate a veritable plethora of winners.
The method is very contrary and requires you to think “against the grain” of your natural momentum thinking tendencies, where you simply look to PLAY ON teams who are doing well and PLAY AGAINST teams who are doing poorly. Before expounding upon the theory, let’s review the concept of the AFP for first-time readers. The AFP stands for “away from the pointspread.” This can refer to a team’s result in a given game, any group of games (such as home vs. away) or for the season to date. The premise of the thinking is that the further a team’s AFP gets from “0”, the more likely their performance against the spread is going to return to the “norm.” The “norm” in this instance refers to the linemaker’s power rating of a team at the beginning of the season.
As it turns out, the line maker, to no veteran handicapper’s surprise, has outstanding Week 1 ratings on the 128 CFB teams. It is not that the line maker does not respect his own opinion; it is rather that he makes adjustments in his rating based on what he knows to be the public’s response to each individual team’s performance. But, as a team’s AFP results get further from the original rating, the more likely their performance reflected by their AFP is to return to the “norm.” That is where we step in to make the money! Forthwith is a description of the way in which we can best profit from my AFP theory.
The basic rules of play pertain to Games 4, 5 and 6 ONLY in the CFB season. In those weeks, we “look to PLAY ON any team who has a (-20) AFP or more against an opponent, who has a (+20) AFP or more, if the total AFP differential is 50 or more. Optimum plays come with a team who has a negative ATS record and is coming off an ATS loss, AGAINST an opponent who has a positive ATS record and is coming off an ATS victory. Following those parameters has historically resulted in a solid profit in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 of the CFB season.
Last week, we had a “warm-up” week with 3 teams meeting basic parameters of play. The winners were Georgia St. (+35) against Wisconsin in their 23-17 loss, in which they covered by 29 points; Ole Miss against Alabama as 11 point underdog (a game they covered by 6 points); and Oklahoma against Ohio St. (the only loser in the Sooners’ 21 point defeat).
In the following weeks at this site, my analyses will offer winning college betting picks using this AFP theory as the basis for a handicap. But remember, just like with any other handicapping tool, it must also be used in conjunction with a well-rounded methodology that includes fundamental, statistical and situational handicapping.
In addition to the above statement, it is important to note that many of these games are contests where the line moves 2 or 3 points on the odds board. As a reader of this article, you have the valuable resource of this SBR handicapping site, which offers you the ability to use multiple sportsbooks in search of the best line value in any given game. My advice is to use it to the best of your advantage. Just one extra pointspread victory in the course of the season can make it worth your while!