Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis & Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers teammates celebrating

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 4:59 PM GMT

Let’s dissect this home opener for the Steelers and second straight road tilt for Bengals and try to come up with a hopefully profitable NFL Week 2 pick.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 
Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 23 PS-22 PA) head to Pittsburgh and Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon to play Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 38 PS-16 PA) in a big AFC North Week 2 showdown and what will be a very tough early season loss in NFL Regular Season Week 2 for the ultimate loser. Offshore sportsbooks including YouWager—an Online sportsbook which has earned a B+ grade here at Sportsbook Review and where new players get a 35% Free Play Bonus (up to $350)—currently have the host Steelers as -3 (-125, 5Dimes) to 3½-point favorites (BetOnline, Sportsbook.ag) with the Total (Points) currently either at 48 (Bookmaker, 5Dimes) or 48½ (Sportsbetting.ag). The Money Line (Winner) NFL odds board here see Pittsburgh priced at -175 with Cincinnati at +155 (5Dimes) on the take back here. Heading into this second weekend of the NFL Regular Season, the Steelers Regular Season Win Total sits at of 10½ (Over +110, Under -130, 5Dimes) while the Bengals Regular Season Team Win Total is at 9½ (Over -105, Under -115, 5Dimes). The Advanced Line on this game from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook last Tuesday had Pittsburgh open up as 4-point chalks here while the 2016 Games of the Year also had Pittsburgh installed as a 4-point favorite.

 

Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals (22/1 to win Super Bowl, at 5Dimes) squeezed out a huge Week 1 victory on Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, edging the New York Jets, 23-22, but failing to cover ATS—something the Cats were very good at last Regular Season for 15th-year Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis (107-99-10 ATS). In the win, Bengals Starting QB Andy Dalton (23-15-4 ATS) went 23/30 for 366 yards but ended with only 1 TD Pass (and an INT) and was sacked 7 times while Jeremy Hill (9 rushes, 31 yards, TD) and Giovanni Bernard (5 rushes 35 yards) led the limited Bengals rushing attack. All Pro WR AJ Green had a monster game, catching 12 passes for 180 yards and a TD while teammates Brandon LaFell (4 receptions, 91 yards), CJ Uzomah (2 receptions, 29 yards) and Tyler Boyd (2 receptions, 24 yards) showed Cincinnati’s Receivers can still flourish with free agent WR Mohamed Sanu gone after signing with the Atlanta Falcons in the Offseason. 

Last year Cincinnati saw their postseason come to an end against these rival Steelers, 18-16 (PIT -2½), but so far the Bengals have been mum to the press talking about that game but the big thing here is the Site. Cincinnati has been at or above .500 both SU and ATS the L4 seasons, going an impressive 13-3-1 ATS last season (2015), 8-8-1 ATS in 2014, 10-6-1 ATS in 2013 and 9-7-1 ATS in 2012. On the Injury front T Cedric Ogbuehi (Toe) and CB Darqueze Dennard (Ankle) are all listed as Day-to-Day for the Bengals while LB Vontaze Burfict (Eligible Week 4), TE Tyler Eifert (Ankle, late September Return Expected), CB William Jackson III (Pectoral, I-R), DT Marcus Hardison (Shoulder, I-R), DT Andrew Billings (Knee, I-R), HB Cedric Peerman (Arm, Eligible Week 7) and DT Brandon Thompson (Knee, Eligible Week 7) will all miss be missing this crucial game with talented TE Eifert’s absence hurting the Cincinnati Offense (26 ppg in 2015) the most.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers (+525 to win Super Bowl 51, at Bovada) and Head Coach Mike Tomlin (77-74-5 ATS) started out like the other NFL team from Pennsylvania—the Philadelphia Eagles—did, with a nice double-digit Win with QB Ben Roethlisberger (52-41-2 ATS at Home) throwing for 300 yards (27/37) and 3 TDs (and an INT) getting The Black and Gold’s Regular Season off to a sweet start in a game the Oddsmakers had the Redskins as 3-point underdogs. So no star RB Le’Veon Bell (Suspended), no WR Martavis Bryant (Injured), no Markus Wheaton (Injured) and no TE Heath Miller (Retired) and the Steelers still scored more points than any other AFC team in Week 1 and just one less point than Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions put up in an impressive Road win in Indianapolis (39-35). While the Pittsburgh Defense—led by Lawrence Timmons (8 tackles)—had a great game, All Pro WR Antonio Brown was the best player on the gridiron (8 catches, 126 yards, 2 TDs, 15.8 ypc) with backup RB DeAngelo Williams making a case for himself being the stud on Monday Night Football with 26 rushes for 143 yards (5.5 ypc). Studs.

But anyone watching Monday night knows that Big Ben, Brown, and Williams all played incredible for Pittsburgh, with Roethlisberger having zip on his passes and coming through in the clutch like the veteran always seems to do. On the Injury front—besides WR Bryant and the Suspended Bell—for Pittsburgh, CB Justin Gilbert (Concussion), LB Ryan Shazier (Knee) and aforementioned WR Wheaton (Shoulder) are all listed as Day-to-Day and may be able to play Sunday while CB Senquez Golson (Foot, Early November), OLB Bud Dupree (Abdominal, Eligible Week 9), QB Bruce Gradkowski (Hamstring, I-R), T Jerald Hawkins (Shoulder, I-R), C Valerian Ume-Ezeoke (Undisclosed, I-R) and TE Ladarius Green (Ankle, Eligible Week 7) are all hurt and will miss this first meeting of the season between these two teams.

 

 

Pittsburgh Weather Forecast Sunday, Side and Totals Trends, Game Expectations
The Weather Channel Forecast (from a distance on Monday night) for Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh is currently calling for Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms, a High of 77° with WSW Winds of 5 to 10 mph and 86% Humidity (50% Chance of Rain), so it could be great viewing with the game being at Heinz Field (Grass) and one last Summer Sunday storm possibly on Mother Nature’s docket here in NFL Regular Season Week 2. 

The Totals Trends here show that the Under has been a strong play in this series of late, with the Under 7-3 the L10 meetings, the Under 8-2 the L10 Bengals games on Grass (Heinz Field) and the Under 7-2 in Cincinnati’s L9 against the AFC—although its 23-22 Week 1 win over the Jets trickled Over the posted Total (42)—and the Under is 20-8-1 in the L29 steelers games against the AFC North. And the Over is 7-3 in Pittsburgh’s L10 games in the month of September.  And the Side Trends have been a mixed bag in this rivalry, but the Bengals are a sparkly 9-0 ATS their L9 games on the Road so this is sort of where the Science (Trends, Numbers) meets the Art (Feel, Current Form, Situation in this particular handicap. Can the Steelers cover ATS against a team that hasn’t lost to the Point Spread on the Road in its L9 games? Or if we like the Steelers, maybe look for the lowest Money Line in the marketplace (Pinnacle, Steelers -166) and fire? It seems that both may actually work in this particular spot and despite the ATS success the Bengals have had, laying a clean 3 points (with the juice if need be) seems like a wise approach from this distance.

But why so strong on Pittsburgh here? It’s the Home Opener, to begin with, they looked absolutely fabulous on MNF and have some Revenge in mind after falling to the Bengals, 16-10 (PK, 49) in this game last season. And they have that Roethlisberger (38-30-3 ATS with Revenge), dude, that incredibly prolific Brown dude, Williams in a groove and a Defense intent on getting closer to the glory days of The Steel Curtain. Then toss in some pleasant surprises like Eli Rogers (6 receptions, 59 yards TD), Sammie Coates and Jessie James (5 receptions, 31 yards) and this Offense seems to have plenty of guys to get the pigskin to with Bell and Bryant shelved and speedster Wheaton still hobbled. 

Expect the Bengals to throw much, making the Over worth consideration for Totals players but the site and confidence will matter here and the Steelers will remember losing to Cincinnati here last season in a game that left them at 4-4 and fighting for their Playoff lives for the 2nd Half of the NFL Regular Season. So this seems like a high-scoring, look-at-my-WR type affair with the hosts racking up 4 TDs and a couple of FGs while the Pittsburgh Defense continues to show how much it has improved. The site, situation (Opener) and Antonio Brown should be the most powerful realities here to be taken into account for your NFL week 2 predictions.

 

Predicted Final Score: Steelers 34 Bengals 23
Free NFL Week 2 Picks: Steelers -3 -125 at 5Dimes, Steelers -166 at Pinnacle
NFL Picks ATS Record Season To Date: 19-8-0
NFL Regular Season Week 1 ATS Record: 11-3-0

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