Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets Betting Odds Analysis & NFL Picks

N.Y. Jets Fan Wearing Team's Jersey and A Jet Plane Shaped Hat

Nikki Adams

Sunday, September 11, 2016 2:19 AM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 11, 2016 2:19 AM GMT

Bengals take on the Jets at MetLife, a clash that’s garnered a lot of NFL betting action since open doors to move the NFL lines significantly. We weigh in on this week 1 clash with our NFL picks.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date and Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016, 1 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bengals -1, -110, Over/Under Total 42.5
Opening Line courtesy of Bet Cris

Current Line: Bengals -2.5 (-105), Over/Under Total 41.5 (-105)
Current Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. NY Jets Overview
Marvin Lewis, entering his 14th year as the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, leads his charges at MetLife Stadium in week 1 of the regular season. Three-time AFC North champions in seven years, five straight appearances in the playoffs in the last five years, which includes four straight double-digit winning seasons has the Bengals deemed viable contenders in 2016. However, the charge against Andy Dalton and Lewis is a 0-5 SU record in the postseason.

Repeated disappointments in the playoffs takes the shine off of the Bengals for Super Bowl L1 in many NFL betting circles. Perennial chokers isn’t a flattering label. It follows, overcoming that hump is going to be Lewis’ mandate on the season, surely. Or else. The team boasts a new offensive coach Ken Zampese, who replaces Hue Jackson (departed for in-state rivals Cleveland and the head coaching job there). There are different faces in the receiving corps after Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu departed for greener pastures in the offseason. The defense, however, isn’t too shabby.

The bid for the postseason begins with a date at MetLife and the NY Jets, who are coming off a solid 10-6 SU season but missed the playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back in the fold with a brand new contract – nothing of Luck’s mega deal, but a token gesture nonetheless acknowledging what he accomplished for the Gang Green last term. The successes and disappointments of 2015, in theory make this a stronger team, one year the better off for playing together. Fitz has a great head coach in Todd Bowles and plenty of offensive weapons (tandem of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, to name a few), and to which the addition of Matt Forte only makes the Jets a formidable force on the offensive-side of the ball on paper. Oh, and the defense is no slouch either.

 

Betting Preview and NFL Picks
To begin with, everybody and his grandmother appeared to be backing the Bengals on their NFL picks. Since open doors, SBR consensus betting polls (gleaned from contributing top-rated sportsbooks) reveal the Bengals have 63.8% of the spread bets recorded in their camp. An NFL betting trend that appears to have contributed to Bengals’ move on the NFL odds board from an opening -1 to a high of -2.5 on the road. Practically verging on field goal favourites all while on the road.

That’s quite the move and quite the advantage to have on the road. It speaks to the perceptions about this Bengals’ team, which to all intents and purposes has proven to be an AFC force in the regular season. Heck, last term they ran out winners in their first eight games before succumbing to their first defeat – 10-6 to Houston Texans on Monday Night Football. Overall, the Bengals went 12-5-0 SU and 12-3-2 ATS with an 8.1 margin of victory and a +4.4 differential against the spread (these stats include the 18-16 loss to the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs). They also went 7-10-0 Over/Under with a -1.5-point differential versus the total.

What’s interesting to note about the betting action coming down the wire on this matchup  is the money. Where is the money? The money is with the Jets. Of the 36.24% of spread bets recorded with the Jets, the money amounts to 56.26% risked on this game. The disproportion is down to large bets coming down the wire on the Jets, which could be an indication of sharp money going towards the Jets to cover as the home underdogs, now trading at +2.5 with most sports betting shops. The Jets went 10-6-0 SU and 8-6-2 ATS in 2015 with a margin of victory around 4.6 on average and a +2.2 differential versus the spread. That last stat falls in line just about with the current line on the board. The Jets finished 8-8-0 in Over/Under betting with a +0.9 differential versus the total.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
There’s good reason to back both teams on your NFL picks, really. After all, these were two of the sides that finished with double-digits last term. Dismissing either out of hand therefore would be careless. 

That said, for our money, we’re fading the public and shading the Jets on our NFL picks as the +2.5 home underdogs. It’s a home game in week 1 of the NFL and it couldn’t be more meaningful for the Jets: it’s the 15th year anniversary of 911. The atmosphere is sure to be electric, if not emotional at MetLife. Aside from this intangible, this is a sneaky good team that might not be getting the respect it truly deserves. Then there is the fact that the Bengals, good though as they are, will be working a new scheme this season under new offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. Anytime there are changes there are bound to be learning curves as well. Just another reason that has us hesitating with going for the road team.

NFL Pick: Jets +2.5
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage where you can get a 50% Cash Sign Up Bonus!

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