Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots - Free NFL Week 6 Picks

Cincinnati Bengals players

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 5:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2016 5:22 PM UTC

Ross Benjamin is currently holding an impressive record of 20-7 ATS! This week, he is ready to give us more winning NFL picks. Join him for a Bengals vs. Patriots betting preview.


Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

Tom Brady will make his much-anticipated home debut on Sunday. Brady was suspended for the Patriots first 4 games due to suspension. He made his first start of the year last week at Cleveland and was as sharp as a new razor blade. During that 33-13 win over the Browns, Brady threw for 404 yards and completed 4 touchdown passes. The win improved the Patriots record to 4-1.

The Bengals are coming off a poor effort last Sunday at Dallas during a 28-14 defeat. Quite frankly, the game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates. Dallas jumped out to a 21-0 lead at the half, and Cincinnati was never able to recover. The Bengals were money on the road a season ago, going 6-2 straight up, and a perfect 8-0 ATS. However, they’re 0-2 SU&ATS in their first 2 away games this year.


NFL Week 6 Odds

At the time of this writing (10/12), NFL betting odds at Bookmaker displays New England as a 9.0-point favorite, and there’s a total is 47.0. Bookmaker shows 57.8% of point spread bets have been made in New England thus far. Based on that disparity, it surely had a lot do with their opening number of 8.0 moving to 9.0. As a matter of fact, at this present time, a consensus of the 10 best sportsbooks indicates that 77% of point spread bets have been in New England.


Pertinent Team Trends

The Cincinnati Bengals recent history under head coach Marvin Lewis has proven they respond very well immediately after a loss. Specifically, Cincinnati has gone 13-4-1 straight up, and 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games following a defeat. We can tighten those numbers up even more by using precise betting parameters. If the Bengals are coming off an SU & ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 10.0 or more, and they’re an underdog of 2.5 to 9.0, Cincinnati improves to 5-0 ATS in its last 5 and won 4 of those 5 games straight up.

You just can’t ignore the Patriots home dominance under the guidance of head coach Bill Belichick. New England has gone an off the charts 68-10 (.872) in their last 78 regular season home games, and that includes 44-6 (.880) when facing a non-division opponent. It’s also worth noting, throughout the course off those aforementioned 78 home games, they’ve gone 49-29 (62.8%) over the total. At this exact moment, the total in their upcoming game on Sunday has held steady to its opening number of 47.0, and that’s despite 84% of bets being made on going over the total.


Final Thoughts and Pick

Regardless of Cincinnati’s uninspiring 2-3 start to the season, they’re still a quality football team. The last time they were this large of a regular season underdog was way back 1/2/2011. On that day, they were +9.5 in their regular season finale at Baltimore. Here’s a very noteworthy item, since 11/11/2012, Cincinnati is 16-4 ATS as an underdog, and that includes winning 13 of those 20 games straight up. I’m going against public betting patterns in this game, and siding with the road underdog as one of my NFL week 6 predictions.

 Free NFL Pick: Bengals +8.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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