Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Free Week 6 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Sunday, October 18, 2015 11:07 AM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 11:07 AM GMT

Cincy showed they were for real with a huge comeback win to beat Seattle in OT, but the 5-0 Bengals are always going to have their skeptics. They could be headed for a trap game in Buffalo however.

Opening Odds & Line Movement

Open: -1 -105 at Pinnacle
The NFL odds for this game has been moving constantly as it opened up at -1 for the Bills on Sunday night. Since then, it has been all Cincinnati, going to a PK, then -1, -2, -2.5, -3 and it is at -3.5 as of Wednesday. Being undefeated will be get you a couple half-points, but the Bills are going to be a dangerous opponent. Their defense is ranked 16th in the league, but they're better than that talent-wise and after they were trounced by New England, that unit especially will be eager to show they're better than that.

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Injuries
One key to the Bengals playing this well has been their health as they've been relatively healthy all season. CB Adam Jones, fellow CB Leon Hall and T Andrew Whitworth were all held out of practice on Wednesday, but those seemed to be more of a maintenance day off than for any particular reason.

That isn't the case for the Bills as S Aaron Williams is gone until about Week 14 with a neck injury, while QB Tyrod Taylor has a knee injury and is questionable. Then you have RB LeSean McCoy, who still has a wonky hamstring, while RB Karlos Williams has concussion tests to pass and WR Sammy Watkins is trying to come back from a calf injury. The Bills have been hit hard by injuries early in the season, and it's a credit to Rex Ryan and his staff that they're 3-2.

 

Trends
The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and they're 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road. The Bills have covered in eight of their 11 games, and in four of their last six at home. The total (which opened at 45 and is now at 42) has gone over in four of their last five, but under for the Bills in 10 of their last 13.

Buffalo is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Cincinnati, who are 1-4 SU and ATS in five trips to Buffalo.

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