Chiefs Will Not Be NFL's Lone Unbeaten After Visit to Houston

chiefs texans

David Schwab

Friday, October 6, 2017 12:41 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 6, 2017 12:41 PM UTC

The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2-2 Houston Texans highlight Sunday Night Football in Week 5 in a battle of AFC foes coming off big wins both straight-up and against the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 45)

The Chiefs have successfully navigated their way through the first four weeks of the season with a perfect 4-0 run both straight-up (only unbeaten left) and against the spread, including a stunning upset against New England as 8-point road underdogs in their season opener. The total went OVER 47.5 points in last Monday night’s 29-20 victory against Washington as 6.5-point favorites at home, and it has gone OVER in three of the first four games.

Kansas City comes into this game ranked third in the NFL in scoring with an average of 30.5 points per game and second in total yards. Veteran quarterback Alex Smith is playing at a high level with 1,067 passing yards and eight touchdown throws against zero interceptions. He has completed an impressive 76.0 percent of his 121 passing attempts. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has jump-started the Chiefs’ ground game with 502 rushing yards (No. 1 in NFL) and four touchdowns on 68 carries.

It has been an up and down 2-2 SU start for the Texans this season, but last Sunday’s 57-14 beatdown of AFC South rival Tennessee as 2.5-point home underdogs gives this team some serious momentum for this matchup. Houston is 3-1 ATS, including a cover against the Patriots in a tight 36-33 loss as a 13.5-point road underdog in Week 3. The total has now gone OVER in Houston's past two games.

Tom Savage started the season as top Houston’s quarterback, but it did not take head coach Bill O’Brien long to turn the keys over to rookie Deshaun Watson. He has definitely added a big spark to this offense with both his arm and legs with 811 yards passing and 148 yards on the ground. Last Sunday against the Titans, Watson put the ball up 34 times and he completed 25 passes for 283 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for a score in an historic performance. The Texans are fourth in the league in scoring with an average of 27.5 PPG and their defense is ranked fifth in yards allowed.


Game Betting Trends
  • The Chiefs bring record of 13-3 ATS over their last 16 road games into Sunday night’s matchup and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against a conference opponent. The total has gone OVER the closing betting line in four of their last five road games.
  • The Texans have covered ATS in six of their last eight home games against a team with a SU winning record on the road, but they have failed to cover in five of their last six games coming off a SU win. The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 13 games played in the month of October.
  • Head-to-head, the road team in this series has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings.


Chiefs at Texans Verdict

No one would argue against the fact that Kansas City has been the most complete team in the NFL this season with a high level of success in every phase of the game, but the pressure to keep playing at such a high level continues to build after escaping with a win against the Redskins last time out. The Texans have been a very tough out at home at 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at NRG and I really like their chances to keep things rolling on Sunday night.

Free NFL Pick: Texans +1Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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