Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL Picks: Side With Baltimore to Cover +7

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, December 19, 2015 9:31 PM GMT

In this article we preview this Sunday's game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens for our Big Dog of the Week NFL pick.

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NFL Picks: Ravens +7 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs. Baltimore Ravens 1:00 EST
This game could easily have been selected as our Lone Ranger contrary play of the week. The 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS Ravens limp in on a two game losing streak following their near decapitation by a 35-6 score at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks. Kansas City, conversely, has won seven straight games after holding off San Diego 10-3.

With those results from last week firmly in the mind of the public, the stage is set when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens for this 1 o’clock Eastern Time kick. Remember that Baltimore was a playoff team last season, finishing 11-7, while the Chiefs failed to make the post season party when they crashed and burned for the second straight December, finishing 9-7 with no playoff party invitation. At the beginning of the season, one might clearly have considered that the Baltimore Ravens would have been a healthy home favorite in this contest.

 

Baltimore Ravens
Such was not to be the case, for the schedule makers burdened Baltimore with a brutal opening slate, which saw them playing five of their first seven games on the road, with four of those contests out west. Before they could blink an eye, they were 2-6 heading into their BYE week. When multiple injuries befell them, especially at the QB spot, and turnovers began to mount, it set the stage for a season of disaster. Today, it will not be injured starter Joe Flacco at the signal caller spot, nor may it be his immediate replacements Schaub or Clausen. In fact, it may be the fast balling Ryan Mallet, summoned from a brief retirement, to take the reins of the Ravens today. Through it all, however, note that Baltimore remains 2-4 SU on this field, with only one loss by more than four points.

 

Kansas City Chiefs
Enter the Kansas City Chiefs, who endured their recent problems in early season action. After winning at Houston to open the season, the Chiefs went 0-5 SU ATS before righting their season with an improbably victory vs Pittsburgh. Beginning with that victory, and straddling their BYE week, the Chiefs enter with seven consecutive victories, covering all but last week’s 10-3 home win vs San Diego. NFL road favorites in this price range are undefeated if they enter today’s contest off exactly 7 consecutive wins. With that in mind, it will be easy for most NFL bettors to pull the trigger on Kansas City today. A closer look at the YTD numbers tells us that would be a mistake, as despite their dilemma, Baltimore is actually outgaining their opponents by more yardage than is Kansas City. Look no further than a +12 net turnover margin for today’s visitor, and a -12 net TO margin for the Baltimore Ravens to be one of the key reasons why these teams enter with such divergent records.

As a result, I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and line up with the Baltimore Ravens as my NFL pick as the Big Dog of the week.