Chiefs vs. Raiders Thursday Night Football Odds Report

Jason Lake

Monday, November 17, 2014 1:12 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 17, 2014 1:12 PM UTC

Chiefs have been more profitable against the NFL odds than any other AFC team. But the winless Oakland Raiders have managed to cover half their games this year. Wiil Thursday’s game be one of those?

Jason’s record after Week 10: 28-39 ATS, 11-16-1 Totals

Profit: minus-37.63 units

We hope you’ve been loading up on the Kansas City Chiefs this year. After a shaky start, they’ve rattled off five straight wins to move to 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS, making the Chiefs the top NFL pick in their conference. The good times continued this past Sunday at Arrowhead when Kansas City downed the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks 24-20, cashing in as a 1-point home dog.

The opposition won’t be quite as stout this week on Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, NFLN) when Kansas City visits the 0-10 Oakland Raiders. But that doesn’t mean you should auto-bet the Chiefs; Oakland is 5-5 ATS this season after holding the San Diego Chargers (–10.5 at home) to a 13-6 victory. The Week 12 NFL odds have opened with Kansas City laying six points.

Charles Up, Beast Mode Down
You also shouldn’t blindly bet the Chiefs just because they had 100 percent consensus at the open. Although it does point at how highly the sharps think of Kansas City these days. Hard to argue: Going into Week 11, Football Outsiders had the Chiefs ranked No. 10 in overall efficiency (No. 11 offense, No. 16 defense, No. 8 special teams). Pro Football Reference was even more stoked, putting K.C. at No. 2 in Simple Rating System at plus-9.5, ahead of the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts at plus-9.2 SRS.

Once the Chiefs established that they were still a team on the rise in Year Two under head coach Andy Reid, it wasn’t too difficult for the sharps to open up their purse strings. This team has just about everything you could ask for when it comes to betting value: an underappreciated quarterback in Alex Smith (92.8 passer rating), a strong ground attack led by Jamaal Charles (6.5 yards per carry), excellent special teams – particularly in the return game – and a regional market base tucked away behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.

Things always go better when the defense shows up, too. The Chiefs put the kibosh on Seattle when it mattered most, stuffing three fourth-down attempts in the fourth quarter to seal the win. On the season, Kansas City leads the NFL with only 205.3 passing yards allowed per game. The run defense isn’t quite as stout at 115.6 yards, or No. 20 overall; Marshawn Lynch had 124 yards on 24 carries, but the Chiefs kept him out of the end zone, while Charles had two rushing TDs and 159 yards on 20 carries. Game, set and match.

Where will the public be looking to place their Week 12 NFL Picks?

Hail to the King, Baby
As poorly as things have gone for the Raiders this year, they also carry some sneaky betting value at No. 30 in overall efficiency (No. 30 offense, No. 23 defense, No. 10 special teams). Rookie QB Derek Carr (78.3 passer rating) has done about as well as Oakland fans could have hoped, completing 61.1 percent of his passes and throwing just nine interceptions to go with his 13 TD passes. In terms of passing DVOA, Carr (minus-11.5 percent) was actually slightly ahead of Seattle’s Russell Wilson (minus-11.8 percent) going into Week 11.

The Raiders also have a decent run defense at No. 14 in efficiency, and of course, they have PK Sebastian Janikowski, who is 9-of-11 on field goals this year and 7-for-7 inside the 50. Mad props as well to punter Marquette King (40.9 net yards), who’s already punted 55 times this year, second only to Jacksonville’s Bryan Anger at 58 punts. Defense and special teams go a long way toward beating the football odds. We’ll give it some serious thought and come back later this week with our NFL picks against the spread and total.

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