Chiefs vs. Raiders NFL Betting Preview

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Nikki Adams

Friday, October 14, 2016 5:30 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 14, 2016 5:30 PM UTC

The Chiefs and Raiders collide in an AFC West showdown with pivotal divisional implications that practically leaps off the betting board. How should bettors bet it on their week 6 NFL picks?



Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders look to keep the momentum going when they host the Chiefs at the Coliseum for an AFC West showdown with pivotal divisional implications. As it is, the NFL betting line is tight with the Raiders installed as the nominal home favorites laying a mere point.

Markets did go to press with the Raiders laying -2 at home, but early betting has bet down the line to Raiders -1 with most sportsbooks. Some sportsbooks such as low-juice leaders Pinnacle hang this game on a PK line.

Clearly, the NFL line is moving against Oakland. The reason: early public and sharp betting have gone towards the Chiefs plus the points. As it is, consensus betting polls according to SBR reveal 55.47% of tickets taken went towards the Chiefs along with 66.05% of the money.

Hold on a minute. Didn’t the Chiefs lose abysmally in week 4 to the Steelers? A 43-14 evisceration at Heinz Field that Andy Reid and Company would rather forget. Evidently, the public has. Meanwhile, the Raiders are riding a three-game winning streak and sat atop the AFC West level with the Denver Broncos at 4-1.

So why is the public not buying the momentum the Raiders are enjoying? Part of it might have to do with the quality of the opposition. Wins over Tennessee, Baltimore, and San Diego are hardly ringing endorsements. There is also the simple fact that none of those wins were convincing. Quite the opposite, nerve-wracking and intense come-from-behind wins or last-gasp wins.

So far the Raiders have benefited from a rather advantageous schedule, facing not a single 2015 playoff team in the first five games. The Chiefs (2-2 SU) represent the first such challenge. It follows a win in this game will go some way towards validating the 4-1 SU record on the season and establishing the Raiders as a legitimate contender.

Of course, the Chiefs aren’t quite up to last year’s form. They are coming off a forgettable loss to the Steelers on the road, their second straight road loss of the season. Those avid NFL bettors that follow NFL closely will recall how the Chiefs rebounded spectacularly from an abysmal 1-5 SU start on the season by reeling off ten straight wins to close the season 11-5 SU and clinch a playoff. It was one of the most impressive turnarounds of 2015.

During that run of form the Chiefs swept the series with the Raiders winning 34-20 on the road (week 13) and then 23-17 at Arrowhead (week 18). Overall, in the last six head-to-heads, the Raiders are just 1-5 SU against the Chiefs.


NFL Betting Verdict

 On one hand, the market for this game is a bit of a headscratcher. Looking at the form, one would expect the Raiders to be favored significantly or at the very least with the standard field goal advantage attributed typically to a home team. There is something to be had in the quality of their wins though that does take the shine off. Derek Carr and the O-line are being taxed way too much and one wonders how many times he can bail his defense (one of the worst in the league that leaks yards at a frightening rate). That alone makes one consider whether the Raiders are all smoke and mirrors. How long can they fly by the seat of their pants? Luck does run out eventually. Perhaps, the Chiefs haven’t had quite the production in four games to merit the tight NFL betting odds on offer. Then again, this is a tried and tested unit and few would be surprised if they did come through on week 6 NFL picks as the +1 road underdogs. What would be a so-called “road-upset” by the NFL odds?


NFL Picks: Raiders + 1 (-110)Best Line Offered: at William Hill


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