Chiefs vs. Packers NFL Picks: Take 'Under' 49 Because of Green Bay's Injuries & A Slight Chance of Rain

Jason Lake

Saturday, September 26, 2015 1:18 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 26, 2015 1:18 AM UTC

The Kansas City Chiefs have the OVER at 2-0 this year. Their total on the Week 3 NFL odds board has jumped considerably with the Green Bay Packers up next at Lambeau.

Best ATS NFL Pick for Tonight's Chiefs vs. Packers

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Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 26: 11-6 ATS; 0-1 ML (–1.00 units); 4-5 Total

Has anyone ever managed to figure out the Kansas City Chiefs? They've been all over the map for nearly 20 years. Things were looking up two years ago when Andy Reid took over as head coach, but the Chiefs missed the playoffs in 2014, and their 2015 campaign is off to a rocky start at 1-1 SU and ATS, with a point differential of zero.

But is Kansas City actually in a better position right now than the Green Bay Packers? Probably not, although the Packers do have some injury concerns on both sides of the ball – especially on offense. Those injuries helped the UNDER cash in last week when Green Bay beat the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 (UNDER 49); this week, there's another 49-point total on the NFL odds board for Monday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), but the OVER was the hot pick on our early consensus reports.


Our Chief Weapon Is Surprise
Understandable. The Chiefs took the OVER to the pay window in Weeks 1 and 2, although they were looking at much smaller totals. Their offense looked very good in a 27-20 win over the Houston Texans (OVER 41). Then things fell apart in last week's 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos (OVER 42), who scored touchdowns on both offense and defense in the last minute.

That epic collapse makes it a bit difficult to gauge Kansas City's performance up to this point. Football Outsiders has the Chiefs ranked No. 12 overall (No. 24 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 12 special teams) in efficiency through Week 2, but Pro-Football Reference has pegged K.C. at –4.3 on its Simple Rating System (+4.0 OSRS, –8.3 DSRS). Does not compute.


It's Awfully Runny
Back at the Cheese Shop, we're still waiting word on the status of Packers RB Eddie Lacy. It's looking a bit more likely that he'll play after spraining his ankle against Seattle; Lacy didn't practice Thursday, but both he and WR Davante Adams (ankle) participated in individual drills Friday morning. That extra day of healing before Monday Night Football helps.

It might actually benefit the UNDER if Lacy and Adams do play. They'll be operating at less than 100 percent, and the Chiefs defense looks like its been restored after suffering a number of injuries last year. We're going to wave off the Simple Rating System numbers for now, especially with the Packers checking in at –23.2 SRS. Of course, RT Bryan Bulaga (knee) is still out for Green Bay, which figures to be more important for Monday's end result than either Lacy or Adams.

Monday's weather forecast shows a 10-percent chance of rain over Lambeau at kick-off, so that should be taken into account before you make your NFL picks. With the total bumping up to 49, Green Bay's injuries, and the slight chance of rain, we're willing to overlook the early action and put a tiny bet on the UNDER in this matchup.

NFL Pick: Take UNDER 49 (–105) at Heritage

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