Chiefs vs. Packers NFL Picks: Odds Are Too Big to Cover for Green Bay So Take Kansas City +7

Jason Lake

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 7:30 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 7:30 PM UTC

People may have already been overvaluing the Green Bay Packers. Now the Packers have several injured players and some big NFL odds to cover this Monday night.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 23: 11-5 ATS; 0-1 ML (–1.00 units); 4-4 Total

We can now say it definitively: The Green Bay Packers are not the best team in the NFL. Not through two weeks, at least. According to the DVOA stats at Football Outsiders, the Packers rank No. 5 overall, well behind the Arizona Cardinals. Take that, cheeseheads.

Even worse, the Packers find themselves with some injury problems going into Monday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) with the visiting Chiefs. Could this be the right time to put the Chiefs in our NFL picks? They're available at the full +7 as we go to press, and a slim majority of bettors are on Kansas City in early action. Good news for people who like sharp news.


The Day Today
Unfortunately, since the Packers don't put in their first practice this week until Thursday, we don't have much in the way of status updates on RB Eddie Lacy and WR Davante Adams. Both are listed as “questionable” with sprained ankles. In theory, that means it's a coin flip whether or not each man will play on Monday, but in reality, who knows.

Every missing or hobbled person is a problem for Green Bay, but we try not to get too worked up over tailbacks and wideouts. These are two eminently fungible positions, and the Packers still have RB James Starks (4.3 yards per carry lifetime), who ran for 95 yards on 20 carries in last week's 27-17 win over the Seattle Seahawks (+3.5 away). They also still have Randall Cobb and James Jones at wide receiver, plus this guy named Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. He's pretty good.


Jamaal Cop
What the Packers don't have is RT Bryan Bulaga, who's expected to miss six weeks with knee trouble. Nor do they have much of a defense; according to Football Outsiders, Green Bay ranks No. 22 in defensive efficiency through Week 2. That includes a league-worst performance against the run. The Packers are being praised for holding Marshawn Lynch to 41 yards on 15 carries; meanwhile, Russell Wilson was allowed to scramble 10 times for 78 yards.

If only Alex Smith had the same kind of mobility as Wilson. The Kansas City Chiefs rank No. 15 in rushing offense heading into this game, thanks in part to Jamaal Charles (4.9 yards per carry) fumbling the ball twice in last week's come-from-ahead 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos (+3 away). Fumbles happen, but Charles is usually much better at securing the ball, and Green Bay's defense doesn't hold a candle to Denver's. Given the matchup on the ground, the Packers injury situation, the early action and the spread hitting seven points on our NFL odds, we have no problem recommending a small-ish bet on Kansas City.

NFL Pick: Take the Chiefs +7 at Pinnacle

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