A fairly chalk Week 3 of the NFL season concludes with a nice matchup on "Monday Night Football" between the Chiefs & host Green Bay Packers. Let examine some game props for MNF from Bovada.
|Chiefs To Score First +150 (best line at BetOnline)
PackersTo Score First -160 (best line at 5Dimes)
|Longerst TD 45½ Ov -115 (best line at Bovada)
Longerst TD 48½ Un -125 (best line at 5Dimes)
|Highest Score 1st Half -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
High Score 2H + OT -110 (best line at BetOnline)
|1st Score TD -175 (best line at Bovada)
FG or Safety +160 (best line at 5Dimes)
Aaron Rodgers 'Over/Under' 23.5 Completions, 280.5 Yards, 2.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
Not sure if you heard, but Rodgers is pretty good. And he quite likes playing on "Monday Night Football" apparently. The Packers are 4-1 on NFL odds under Rodgers at home on Monday nights. In those five starts, Rodgers has completed 92 of 130 passes for 1,045 yards, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 116.3. In his past five matchups against AFC teams overall, Rodgers has thrown 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. And here come the obscene stats. Rodgers has not thrown an interception in 15 of the last 18 regular-season games, including the last four. The Packers are 14-1 in those games. Rodgers last threw an interception at home on Dec. 12, 2012, vs. Minnesota. The last time Rodgers threw multiple interceptions at home was Oct. 24, 2010, vs. the Vikings. Rodgers also has recorded a passer rating of 100-plus in 13 of the last 18 regular-season games. Over his past 18 games at home (including the postseason), he has thrown 43 touchdowns and no interceptions while posting a 124 passer rating. Kansas City is No. 22 against the pass, allowing 268 yards per game. They have faced Houston's Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett and Denver's Peyton Manning thus far. The Chiefs did enter Week 2 at second in the NFL with eight sacks and have the reigning sack king in Justin Houston. He has three already. Their only chance of winning is to take Rodgers down multiple times.
NFL Free Picks: 'Over' all at Bovada. Yes, Rodgers throws his first pick. But it comes on a fluky tip.
Alex Smith O/U 19.5 Completions, 215.5 Yards, 1.5 TD Passes, .5 INTs
I guess technically the quarterback is the most important player on any NFL team. But bear with me here. I would say that's sort of not true with the Chiefs. Their best player on offense is easily running back Jamaal Charles. What other teams would you say the QB isn't the best? Maybe the Vikings with Adrian Peterson? The Bengals with receiver A.J. Green? I digress. But all Coach Andy Reid wants for Smith is to manage the game and not lose it. He did that expertly in the Week 1 win over Houston, completing 66.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no picks. But Smith struggled against a good Denver defense, completing 64 percent with no touchdowns and two picks. Oh, and Smith hasn't thrown a touchdown pass to one of his wide receivers since December 2013. That's craziness. The Packers are allowing 209.0 yards per game and have given up three touchdown passes and picked two off in beating Chicago's Jay Cutler and Seattle's Russell Wilson.
NFL Free Picks: I think Chiefs will get down by a decent amount early, thus forcing Smith to throw more. I'm going 'Over' both.
Jamaal Charles O/U 79.5 Rushing Yards, 30.5 Receiving Yards
I have never played pro football -- some small college. So when I say that Charles is likely to be motivated to have a big game here, well, I'm sure he's always motivated to have a big game. But sometimes there can be just that bit more of a spark. And I think that will be the case because it's Charles' fault that the Chiefs lost to Denver in Week 2. He had two lost fumbles, including in the final seconds that the Broncos returned for the winning touchdown in easily the most stunning ending of the season so far. Should the Chiefs' Reid had just called for Smith to take a knee instead of handing it off to Charles? No question. But it's still on the running back. The Packers were gashed on the ground by the Bears' Matt Forte in Week 1 but were much better in last week's win over Seattle against Marshawn Lynch.
NFL Free Picks: Maybe I'm being overly optimistic today, but I'm going 'Over' on all again.