Chiefs 2018 NFL Schedule Betting Breakdown: New QB, Same Result?

Jay Pryce

Monday, April 23, 2018 1:49 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 23, 2018 1:49 PM UTC

Kansas City is relying on new starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes to help them win a third consecutive AFC West title. Here are a few choice betting spots on the Chiefs' schedule.

The Chiefs play four of their first six games on the road, which might make for a rough start in their attempt at an AFC West three-peat.

Below you will find the Chiefs’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.

2017 SU Record: 10-6 (4.8 avg. margin)

2017 ATS Record: 10-6 (1.3 avg. margin)

2017 Average Line: -3.5

2017 Win Total: 9 (-120)

2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 9 (+135)

2018 Strength of Schedule: T-19, opponents were 126-130 (.492)

Three Games to Back ATS

@Steelers, Week 2

The Chiefs snapped a five-game win streak to open 2017 with a 19-13 defeat to the Steelers at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. It proved the catalyst for a mini slump in which K.C. lost five of their next six contests after reaching the top of most power rankings to begin the year. Revenge is motivation for head coach Andy Reid. Since his days coaching the Eagles, his squads are 29-16 SU and 37-8 ATS avenging a loss by less then two touchdowns in the previous meeting. He is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS with the Chiefs. Reid’s teams go off with an average 2.7 line, yet cover the spread by 7.6 points per game. This is the eighth year in a row these two clash. Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU. Reid is desperate for a statement win. He’s probably already scouting up a plan

@Broncos, Week 4; @Raiders, Week 13

The Chiefs are an amazing 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS against AFC West foes in their last 20 games. Both straight-up defeats were by one score, too. Reid’s defense dominates in these rivalries, holding opponents to 16.6 points per game. The Chiefs’ ability to run the ball and control possession is also a boon. Check out how badly the Broncos played against efficient rushing attacks in 2017. Where K.C. slips up a tad against the number is when the spread ventures into touchdown range or higher. The offense is not explosive enough to embarrass opponents. The Chiefs are 13-2 ATS in this span with a line between 6 points. Look for a similar number at the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders.

Three Games to Fade ATS

Bengals, Week 7; Cardinals, Week 10; Raiders, Week 17

Reid’s deliberate game management tends to burn bettors laying a big number when the Chiefs host a poor offensive opponent. Since 2013, K.C. is 11-5 SU, yet 6-10 ATS at Arrowhead against teams that put up fewer than 22 points per game the prior season. This includes dropping six of their last seven against the number. The Chiefs kick off 7.7-point favorites in this spot, but fail to cover by 1.5 per game. The offense lacks the firepower or free rein to top a touchdown handicap consistently. It averages 23.4 points under these conditions. The Bengals (18.1), Cardinals (18.4), and Raiders (18.8) all trigger this situation in 2018.

Trap Game Potential

49ers, Week 3

The Chiefs open the season playing their only two-game away trip of the year. They travel more than 4,800 miles. Returning home is a spot Reid’s preparation has sometimes come up short. K.C. is 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS, despite kicking off an average 5.4-point favorite. Three times it has lost outright gifting more than a touchdown: Colts (+7, 2013), Bears (+9, 2015), and Bills (+8.5, 2017).

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