Chargers vs. Ravens NFL Picks: Side With Baltimore -3 at Home

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 11:15 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 11:15 PM GMT

Just as we suspected: the Baltimore Ravens are the “real” sharp NFL pick for their Sunday afternoon matchup with the San Diego Chargers. Money doesn't lie.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 28: 22-16-1 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-26 Total

When in doubt, wait it out. We were wondering why the San Diego Chargers were getting so much early love for Sunday's early-afternoon game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) with the Baltimore Ravens. Now that our expanded consensus reports are in, we think we have the answer: small sample size. In terms of monies wagered, the Ravens are pulling in over 70 percent of the cash, even though just 52 percent of bettors prefer Baltimore as a 3-point home chalk on our NFL odds board.

In case that's not enough evidence that the sharps are on Baltimore, our expanded report shows three $1,000+ bets on the the Ravens (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS), and zero on the Chargers (2-5 SU and ATS). Good stuff. Now all we need is for the betting public to come in on San Diego and move that spread to 2.5 points. We're fairly confident the public will do its part. The books have some extra vigorish to burn through first; they've pegged the Ravens as high as –3 (–130) as we go to press.

 

Lamestream Medials
Okay, if we are indeed putting Baltimore in our Week 8 NFL picks, we could use some favorable news on the injury front – favorable for us, that is. Here's something: Chargers TE Antonio Gates (knee) didn't practice Wednesday. The extent of his injury isn't known, but it's believed Gates has a sprained MCL. He could miss multiple games.

Also missing from Wednesday's practice: LG Orlando Franklin, who remains listed as questionable for Sunday with a “slight” MCL sprain of his own. On defense, safety Eric Weddle (groin) joined linebackers Manti Te'o (ankle) and Denzel Perryman (pec and/or biceps) on the sidelines. Perryman filled in for Te'o the past two games before getting hurt himself in last week's 33-28 loss to the Detroit Lions (+3.5 away).

 

Too Close for Comfort
The Ravens don't enter Sunday's game completely unscathed. They're playing on a short week after losing 26-18 to the Arizona Cardinals (–10 at home) on Monday Night Football; LT Eugene Monroe hurt his shoulder in that game and didn't practice Wednesday. Otherwise, WR Breshad Perriman (knee) and CB Tray Walker (concussion) were the only other absentees. Perriman has yet to play this year.

The weather report also appears to favor the Ravens. We're looking at a 30-percent chance of rain over M&T Bank Stadium at kick-off, which plays into the hands of Baltimore's run-heavy offense. Less so for San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who happens to be waiting patiently for his wife Tiffany to give birth to their eighth child. Sounds like the plot of a TV show. Let's see... Eight Is Plenty? Jeeves, get my agent on the phone.

NFL Pick: Take the Ravens –3 (–120) at The Greek

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837102, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,19,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here