Chargers vs. Chiefs: Kansas City The Money Maker NFL Pick

Nikki Adams

Thursday, December 10, 2015 2:22 PM GMT

The Chiefs are the only double-digit faves trading on the NFL odds board. Do the Chiefs deserve to be so at the expense of the Chargers? Join us as we weigh in and serve up NFL picks.

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NFL Picks: Chiefs -10 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

Kansas City Chiefs Massive Home Chalk
Of all the games trading on the NFL odds board in week 14, the AFC West showdown between the surging Chiefs and the sparked out Chargers practically leaps off the page simply because of its double-barrel tender.

Understandably, this rather one-sided take on this matchup prompts the question whether the odds makers have it right. Consider Advanced Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had this game trading on an 8.5-point line with the Chiefs to the good last week, it’s opening tender of 11.5-points earlier this week marks one of the biggest jumps at the heels of week 13, adding to this dilemma.

To be fair, it’s a significant inflation. However, the reason for it is two-fold. On one hand, the Chiefs are undeniably surging behind a six-game winning streak, which includes six straight covers to boot. Granted none of the covers involved massive spreads. Which neatly brings us to the second reason for this sudden swelling of the NFL betting line: the Chargers’ failure to launch at home to the Broncos in week 13.

Nobody that has followed the Chargers this season can be under any illusions. They stink. No ifs or buts about it. They boast one of the league’s worst records – a 3-9 SU record, which is only bested by the Browns’ 2-10 SU record. Against the spread, they are 4-8 ATS but that mark includes a 6.4-point losing margin and a negative 5.1-point differential against the spread.

Despite these glaring woes, the Chargers haven’t opened at such disadvantage this season until now. Well, in week 6 against the Packers they did close as the 10.5-point road underdogs but not after opening around the 8-9-point mark in early NFL betting serves and being bet up into double-digits. (For what it’s worth, they did cover at the time in a 27-20 loss at Lambeau Field.)

Last week’s 17-3 loss to the Broncos, however, saw the Chargers hit a new nadir. Inasmuch as the outcome was down to the Broncos and their solid play, the apathy and general disinterest displayed by the Chargers in the account was inescapable. For a while now the Chargers have been playing under a smog of questions about their imminent departure to Los Angeles. Will they won’t they quit the city for the riches of the Hollywood Mecca. At this rate, nobody is going to be fussed if they do go, never mind throwing a tearful going away party.

Of course, as mentioned above it’s a double-edged sword. Insofar as the Chargers are a bad team, the Chiefs are a much better team. The Chiefs’ recent surge – which looked highly improbably almost two months ago, mind – is spectacular. That much more so for its seeming improbability back when they too were mired in struggles of their own.

Since week 7’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Arrowhead the Chiefs haven’t looked back, winning six on the trot. All convincingly as well by outscoring opponents 194-to-81 for a plus 113-differential or an 18.8 winning margin on average. It’s worth mentioning that they during that run of form they thumped the Chargers 33-3 covering the 3-point spread by a whopping 27-points. Over this run of form they’ve covered the spread on average by plus 16.5-points.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
Typically, large spreads present risky bets for your NFL picks. However, form and stats seem to suggest the Chiefs are a solid NFL pick to back even with the hefty spread. If that’s not enough to convince you, then here’s on last titbit that we feel is a good sign we might be barking up the right tree: consensus betting. That’s right, we’re following the money.

Consensus betting trends at SBR reveal the Chargers are garnering the bigger share of tickets on this game – most recent polls reveal 58.16% of the tickets recorded are shading the Charges as the hefty underdogs. However, the actual money is significantly disproportionate to the volume of tickets. In fact, the Chiefs have a whopping 63% of the money risked on this game despite raking in just 41.84% of the tickets recorded. When there’s big money, it usual is a sign of sharp betting action. So, we’re following the money with our NFL picks.