Chargers Under 6.5 In Season Win Totals, Not Enough For Post Season Run


Nikki Adams

Tuesday, August 2, 2016 7:04 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016 7:04 PM UTC

Opinion on San Diego is divided with some sportsbooks rolling out a 6.5-win line and others a 7-win line for the Chargers in NFL betting markets. Which line should you bet and how should you bet it?

San Diego Chargers 2015 Look Back
With Peyton Manning’s retirement, Philip Rivers becomes the de facto “best” quarterback in the AFC West, based on experience and littering stats sheets. Does that, therefore, mean the Chargers have a shot in a tough AFC West division in 2016?

To look back at 2015 is to gain some perspective on the Chargers and how they might stack up this season. And it’s not looking good, to be fair.

The abysmal 4-12 SU record, which was underscored by a woeful 1-7 SU record on the road and an inexplicable 0-6 SU record in the division provides very little in the way of positives. It’s nothing but an invitation to badger the Chargers in every aspect of the game and prompts debates about how it all went tits up in California.

There were many talking points, too many to cover adequately enough in this space. Suffice it to say, if there’s one noteworthy talking point to come out of last term then it’s Philip Rivers simply can do it all on his own. As good as he might be at quarterback, he has no team to speak of at all. And that makes winning football games tough, evidently.

Therefore, he may be the so-called best signal caller in the AFC West now, but expecting the Chargers to orchestrate a sudden turnaround in the AFC West – from basement dwellers to penthouse pimps – is a bit much. The Denver Broncos are still a defensive force to contend with, as are the Kansas City Chiefs, who also boast a viable quarterback in Alex Smith. Then there’s the emerging Oakland Raiders with a burgeoning talented quarterback Derek Carr that can’t be overlooked.

In fact, when putting the team as a whole in the balance of the division all three divisional rivals appear to be miles ahead of the Chargers in quality, talent and depth. That was glaringly obvious in 2015 after the Chargers deposited a 0-6 SU record in the division, and any changes they’ve made in the offseason you’d think are unlikely to close the gap meaningfully. Heck, why else would bookmakers hang the Chargers on a 6.5 or 7-win season? The lowest projected season win total of any team in the AFC West.

What does all this mean? If you want, it means another subpar season by the Chargers is very possible, unless they somehow find a way to make an impact in the six divisional games all teams must play. If they don’t, that only puts pressure on the remaining 10 games of the season, five of which are non-divisional games on the road –we saw how well they played on the road last term too, 1-7 SU. Nuff said.


Week 1 vs. Kansas City (away), Sunday, September 11
An opening game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, one of the least friendly stadiums in the league for the visiting team, is a tough ask. Theoretically, anything can happen in the first week of the NFL – even the improbable upset. Somehow, try as hard as we might, we just don’t see Philip Rivers and Company descending on Alex Reid’s side to serve up the surprise.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 0-1


Week 2 vs. Jacksonville, Sunday, September 18
The Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to be a much better team in 2016. Heck, they were marginally better than the Chargers last season finishing with a 5-11 SU record. Not unlike the Chargers, second-year quarterback Blake Bortles and the Jaguars did struggle on the road – they finished 1-7 SU on their travels. This one is a bit of a tossup in our books. The Chargers have had the Jaguars’ number in the last five meetings, but this is an exciting and burgeoning young offense that can hang with Philip Rivers in a shootout. They’ve also improved their defense. Chargers should win their season home opener but the Jaguars could win. What the hey, fortune favours the brave. We’re going with the black cats.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 0-2


Week 3 vs. Indianapolis (away), Sunday, September 25
Andrew Luck and the Colts look to put behind a disappointing 2015 season. Luck has a nice new contract, so too does Chuck Pagano. Great, those two are happy. But what has the organisation done to improve the Colts as a whole? This isn’t the mismatch that some would have it and, interestingly, enough the Chargers have a fighting chance in this game. It’s on the road, though. That makes us nervy to actually make the Chargers our official NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 0-3


Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Sunday, October 2
The clash between Drew Brees and Philip Rivers should be interesting for many reasons – on of which is Brees was drafted by San Diego and spent five seasons there. Drew Brees and the Saints are also coming off a forgettable 2015. They should be better than they were last season, but, typically, the Saints blow hot and cold on the road.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 1-3


Week 5 vs. Oakland (away), Sunday, October 9
The Raiders are a team on the rise, make no mistake. Heck, they finished above the Chargers with a 7-9 SU record last season that included a series sweep of Philip Rivers and Company. Coliseum is no longer a straightforward place for opposing teams. A young exciting offense spearheaded by Derek Carr at quarterback and a maturing defense that boasts Khalil Mack is sure to give the Chargers headaches.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 1-4


Week 6 vs. Denver, Thursday, October 13
The Super Bowl champions descend on San Diego Chargers in week 6 of the season, marking the first meeting of the two-game series which spans three weeks in 2016 (a trip to Mile High looms in week 8, Yikes). Although the quarterback position is still up in the air, the Broncos vaulted defense is nothing to sniff at. It’s going to be tough to beat them. Plus, it’s a short week for the Chargers. No love from the NFL schedulers, here.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 1-5


Week 7 vs. Atlanta (away), Sunday, October 23
The Atlanta Falcons were a confounding side last season, starting strong before the wheels came undone. Eventually, they did finish with a respectable enough 8-8 SU record in Dan Quinn’s first season as head coach. The main issue with the Falcons is defense, they finished amongst the league’s worst in many defensive categories including dead last in regular season sacks. Philip Rivers might fancy his chances at the Georgia Dome as a result.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 2-5


Week 8 vs. Denver (away), Sunday, October 30

It’s Mile High. No chance. Sure, Mark Sanchez might be the quarterback or  ...dunno... somebody else. The defense is sure to flatten Rivers all day long.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 2-6


Week 9 vs. Tennessee, Sunday, November 6
The Tennessee Titans are a developing side and have a ways to go before emerging as a viable team in their division, never mind conference and league. This must be a winnable game for the Chargers, you’d think.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 3-6


Week 10 vs. Miami, Sunday, November 13
Miami Dolphins are debuting a new head coach Adam Gase in 2016. They don’t travel well out west. This is another winnable game for the Chargers, you’d think. Wow, a mini-winning streak, finally.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 4-6


Week 11 BYE


Week 12 vs. Houston (away), Sunday, November 27
The Chargers come off a bye week and travel to Houston to face off against the Texans and Brock Osweiler. The Texans will be coming off a short week following a Monday Night Football date with the Raiders, so all might not be lost for the Chargers. Still, Philip Rivers and the Chargers didn’t fare well on the road last term and, especially, not against stout defenses.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 4-7


Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay, Sunday, December 4
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a talented squad but they are still young and largely inexperienced. They’re also under the tutelage of a new head coach in 2016. It’s hard to say what to expect from this team, but the Chargers have to consider this a winnable game at home.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 5-7


Week 14 vs. Carolina (away), Sunday, December 11
Super Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers on the road. Ha, no chance. Need one say more?

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-8


Week 15 vs. Oakland, Sunday, December 18
Oakland Raiders used to be the AFC West punching bag. No more. They swept the series last term and could do so again in 2015 with the weapons they have on both sides of the ball.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 5-9


Week 16 vs. Cleveland (away), Saturday, December 24
If the Chargers don’t win this game they’ll be the laughing stock of the NFL betting world. Seriously, most NFL pundits and experts have the Browns finishing with a big fat ZERO in the win column. The Chargers won’t want to be the team that proves those ominous prognosticators wrong, do they?

NFL Picks: Win
Record 6-9


Week 17 vs. Kansas City, Sunday, January 1
The Chiefs are likely to be contending for a playoff spot. The chance the Chargers will be doing the same is as unlikely as the sun not rising in the morning. The Chiefs hands down have to be the smart NFL pick to win this curtain closer.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 6-10


NFL Projected Season Win total Predictions for the Chargers: Predicting any team’s season is no mean feat, nor is it an exact science. It’s all speculation, borderline outrageous predictions in many cases. However, as far as the Chargers are concerned, we must be able to agree that this isn’t a playoff bound team in 2016. Not the way they currently stack up on paper.

The question is whether they’ll finish as poorly as we reckon in this game-by-game predictions piece. As mentioned above, opinion is split between a 6.5 season win total and a 7 season win total across sports betting platforms. It’s also worth mentioning that the OVER 6.5, currently available with Bet365, is the favoured outcome at -200 NFL odds (The UNDER is priced at whopping +165 NFL odds). The OVER and UNDER 7, currently available with Bodog, are both trading coyly at -115 NFL odds.

By our reckoning we have the Chargers finishing at best with 6 wins on the season, which yields a best bet on your NFL picks as the UNDER 6.5 available with Bet365 at +165 NFL odds. Make no mistake, we’re going against the grain here but the price is just too tempting to ignore. Clearly, taking the extra win with Bodog affords more wiggle room should the Chargers actually be better and the price is decent value at -115 NFL odds too.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 6.5 +165
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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