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Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Will Los Angeles' Motivation Lead to Defensive Battle?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 8, 2023 7:36 AM EST • 2 min 28 sec read.

DeAndre Carter of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates his touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders.
DeAndre Carter of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrates his touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images via AFP.

When the Los Angeles Chargers visit the Denver Broncos in Week 18, they will be looking to maintain their momentum heading into the playoffs. Read on for our Chargers-Broncos pick based on the top odds.

The Chargers (10-6) are one of seven teams in the league with an active four-game winning streak. That run is the longest in two seasons under head coach Brandon Staley and has catapulted L.A. into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs entering this week.

The Broncos (4-12) tied a franchise record for losses in a season and fell to 0-8 in road games in North America this season, as their only win away from home came in a London game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Denver’s 27-24 loss to Kansas City was its ninth consecutive divisional loss.

Here is our best Chargers vs. Broncos NFL pick for Week 18 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets for Week 18, picks roundup, and against the spread power rankings.

Chargers vs. Broncos Game Info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Weather: 46 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 9-mph SW wind

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Chargers vs. Broncos Odds

Chargers vs. Broncos Odds Analysis

This line has jumped the fence, with the Chargers going from 3-point favorites to as high as +4.5 underdogs. The betting splits justify that movement, as 77% of the cash is on the Broncos.

The total has held firm at 40 all week, with a couple of sportsbooks moving to 39.5. Sharp action has backed the Under, as 42% of the bets but 70% of the handle is on that side.

Chargers vs. Broncos Pick

Under 40 ⭐⭐

From Weeks 1-13, the Chargers had the 30th-ranked scoring defense at 25.8 points per game. From Weeks 14-16, the Los Angeles defense ranked first in points per game allowed (11.3), yards per game (225.3), and QBR (19). The Chargers followed that up by holding the Rams to just 10 points and 277 total yards in Week 17, and Baker Mayfield finished with a 27.8 QBR.

The Chargers' offense has not lit it up recently, as Justin Herbert just broke a two-game streak with zero passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense has been atrocious all year. Outside of scoring 52 combined points in its two games against Kansas City over the previous four weeks, the Broncos have averaged just 14.6 points per game and own the league’s 24th-ranked offense in total yards (316.0 yards per game).

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley said he will not rest players in this finale with an eye on clinching the AFC’s No. 5 seed. As such, Joey Bosa should see more than a 49% snap share in his second game back, and the Chargers' defense should be the primary reason Denver’s four-game Over streak is snapped (the Under cashed in 11 of Denver’s first 12 games).

Chargers vs. Broncos Best Odds

DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
4039.5404040
Under -110Under -110Under -110Under -110Under -110

From a value perspective, there is nothing separating four of the five major sportsbooks, as all have the O/U listed at 40 with standard -110 juice. The only glaring difference is at FanDuel, at which Under backers would be wise to avoid seeing as it is a half-point lower at 39.5.

Chargers-Broncos picks made 1/6/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.