After opening as NFL Odds favorites, a wealth of betting has come in on the Broncos, leading to the Hawks going from favorites to solid underdogs. Does Seattle have enough value right now to warrant an early week wager, or with the current trends, should we wait until the Hawks possibly have even more value for our NFL picks?
From favorite to underdog (+115)
While the huge NFL Odds movement for the Super Bowl doesn’t surprise me much, it does bring into question a few things. Firstly, where should you strike if you like the Hawks? You don’t want to wait for the wagering on Seattle to start, because you might not get the value you were looking for, or that is currently available. Secondly, and probably more importantly, what spread can the books use to influence betting on the Seahawks?
Some sportsbooks already have the NFL Odds for the spread at -3, and I suspect if the spread goes any higher than that, we will start to see more action on the Seahawks. Right now, the NFL Odds for the moneyline are as high as +120 at BetDSI, and +115 at other shops. If the spread jumps up to -3 ½ and the moneyline goes with it, I can almost guarantee there will be a big wave of money coming in on Seattle.
When it comes to their receivers, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas will both play critical roles in slowing down the Denver passing game, and as long as the Hawks can eliminate some of Manning’s options, they are going to keep this game close enough to win it at the end.
People like to think that the experience and excellence of Peyton Manning is what will win this game, but keeping the ball away from him, and making life miserable for him when he does have the ball are going to be critical for the Hawks in this game. As long as they can put pressure on Manning, they will win. Teams that fall behind the Broncos are the ones that feel the pressure from Denver’s defense, however the Hawks are good enough on defense to slow down even the most potent offenses.
Compare the many Super Bowl Props that surround this year's championship.
While the Seattle defense won’t be able to stop Manning completely, getting pressure on him will be the first step. If he counters with quick screens, the Seattle linebackers and safeties are good enough to contain. As long as the corners don’t get burned on the outside, Seattle could win this game.
Russell Wilson will also play a key role in taking some of the heat off of Marshawn Lynch. As long as Wilson throws and runs for over 200 yards, the Hawks will be in a position to win the game by the 4th quarter.