Championship Sunday Best Last-Minute Value on the Board

David Schwab

Friday, January 19, 2018 2:39 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 19, 2018 2:39 PM UTC

The final two games to decide which teams will square off in Super Bowl LII kick off Sunday. Here are some betting tips & trends on Jaguars-Patriots in the AFC title game and Vikings-Eagles in the NFC.

Both conference championship matchups Sunday are filled with some interesting plot lines that could have an impact on the final outcomes, but sports bettors also need to pay close attention to the NFL betting line movements at SBR Odds to give yourself the best chance to cash a few winning tickets.

Conference Championships Betting Line Movements

Jacksonville opened as a 7.5-point road underdog last week against Pittsburgh, and that line closed at 7 in the Jaguars’ stunning 45-42 upset. The spread against New England this week opened at 9.5 points, but it is now down to 7.5 points at most books with some concern about Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s throwing hand.

The total for this AFC title clash opened at 46 points, and it has inched up to 46.5 points with some action on the OVER. The Jaguars have scored at least 30 points in five of their last seven games, and New England was second in the league in scoring with an average of 28.6 points a game.

The Vikings opened as 4.5-point road favorites in the NFC title game against Philadelphia, but that was quickly bet down to 3.5 points by Monday afternoon. The line continues to shift toward the Eagles at 3 points, but you will probably have to pay some extra juice to get that number. Home underdogs in high-profile games are bound to attract some attention regardless of the reasons why the odds have been set this way.

The total for this game opened at 38 points, and it has been bet up to 39 points as we get closer to kickoff. Both teams enter with stingy defenses in the points allowed department; however, a total line set this low is bound to generate interest among the betting public gravitating towards the OVER.

Key Betting Trends
  • Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS this season closing as an underdog, and it has covered in eight of its last 12 road games. The total has gone OVER in four of its last six contests.
  • New England started the season 1-3 ATS with a SU record of 2-2, but over its last 12 regular season games it has won 11 SU while going 10-2 ATS. The total went OVER 48 points in last Saturday’s 35-14 victory against Tennessee as 13.5-point home favorites after staying UNDER in nine of the Patriots’ previous 12 games.
  • Head-to-head, New England has covered in five of the last seven meetings, and it has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against Jacksonville. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings.
  • Minnesota is 2-3 ATS in its last five games after covering in its previous seven outings. It is 8-5 ATS as a favorite this season, and the total has gone OVER in four of its last six games on the road.
  • Philadelphia finished the regular season with just one cover in its last five games, but it is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of its last eight games overall.
  • The Eagles have a big edge in this matchup SU with a 6-2 record in the last eight meetings. They have gone 7-1 both SU and ATS in their last eight home games against the Vikings, and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Philadelphia.

Top-Valued Play

New England has closed as a double-digit favorite in five of its last seven games, and it has been able to cover in four of those. Since you never know what you are going to get from the Jaguars, the value has shifted toward the Patriots covering given a much tighter spread.

Turning to the NFC Championship, the Eagles know that their best chance to win as home underdogs lies in their ability to mirror the game plan they used to get past Atlanta. Ball control and field position will be key factors in this game as each offense will have to pick and choose it spots to try and put points on the board against two very good defenses. This adds quite a bit of value to the UNDER on the 39-point total, especially with this game being played outdoors at Lincoln Financial Field.

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