Chalky Plays Pay Dividends in Week 16 NFL Picks

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Swinging Johnson

Thursday, December 21, 2017 8:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 21, 2017 8:21 PM UTC

Two more weeks left and we are picking up steam as the NFL regular season drifts to a close. After a 2-0-1 ATS week we are locked and loaded for a sweep of our Week 16 NFL picks.

NFL Week 16

It was a wild Week 15 but we came out of it with the bookies’ money in our pockets. The Giants proved to be an easy cover with a 7½-point head start and nearly upset the NFC East rival Eagles in a 34-29 thriller. That was good for two units, but we turned up the heat when the Bills notched a 24-16 win as three-point home chalk over the Dolphins, which put four units in the win column. Finally, the Patriots rallied for a win and an ATS push as three-point road favorites in their 27-24 win over the Steelers.

I would be remiss if I didn’t point out the torrid pace set by my colleague, the Woodman. He is hitting at more than 73 percent in his NFL picks and scored another ATS winner with the Jets +16 last week in their 31-19 loss to the Saints. Wow ... just wow. Let’s check out the NFL odds for Week 16 and keep smashing the books!

Browns vs. Bears (-6½)

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Free NFL Pick: Bears -6½ (3 units)Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

The oddsmakers opened Chicago laying a touchdown but that number dropped to an all-important 6½ as of this Thursday afternoon writing. I couldn’t be happier because, although offensively challenged, the Bears are facing the NFL’s version of a special-needs entry. Yes, the Cleveland Browns are playing their way to a winless season and this is exactly the kind of team a pedestrian-at-best Chicago club can clobber.

Cleveland has failed to cover the number in six of its last seven games and has averaged a dismal 12.8 points per game over their last five contests. Factor that in with their 30th-ranked defense, allowing 25.9 points per game, and Bears rookie QB Mitch Trubisky will conjure images of vintage Jay Cutler (I said vintage). In addition, Chicago boasts a fairly solid defense, surrendering 21 PPG and ranked 12th in the league. This should be a 24-6 caliber contest with the home chalk getting the win and cover.

Broncos vs. Redskins (-3)

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Free NFL Pick: Redskins -3 (2 units)Best Line Offered: Heritage

Don’t let Denver’s recent wins over two woeful teams fool you. The Jets and Colts are not the Washington Redskins and that will be evident Sunday as the Broncos’ musical chairs at quarterback returns to the thoroughly underwhelming Brock Osweiler. Denver has yet to cover the number with Osweiler as their starter and that trend should continue against a Washington defense that is better than most when healthy.

The mismatch at quarterback is striking, with Kirk Cousins having more talent and more weapons at his disposal than Osweiler. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS on the road this season and 1-6 ATS when the total falls between 38½ and 42 points (current total on this game is 40½). I like the Skins to abuse the Broncos and inch closer to a .500 season.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs (-10)

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Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -10 (4 units)Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

Call me Chalky von Chalkawitz because I’m playing all chalk on Sunday for the first time this season. I have been much more of an underdog bettor this season than in the past, and my record has suffered because of it. However, you might have noticed I’ve mixed it up a bit more over the past three weeks, which has proven to be a winning formula.

The Chiefs are simply too potent for a Miami team that has a faded with creaky Jay Cutler pulling the trigger. The only reason Cutler enjoyed success against the Patriots a few weeks ago is because he felt no pressure in the backfield. New England went into that game flat as a board and its pass rush was non-existent. This won’t be the case Sunday with the Chiefs' chaos-makers in the trenches gunning for Cutler’s scalp in front of nearly 80,000 rabid fans at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Woodman’s Corner (11-4 ATS, +6.6 units)

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Free NFL Pick: Bucs +10Best Line Offered: BetOnline

The Woodman nailed the Jets +16 over New Orleans last week and now turns his attention to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This matchup features Jameis Winston and crew, mired in the muck of the NFC South basement, heading north to take on their divisional rivals from Carolina. The Woodman believes the 10-point impost is just too generous and the game will be much closer than the 17-3 defeat the Bucs suffered to the Panthers in October. If this man is sellin’ then I’m buyin’, baby! Bucs make bucks on Sunday.

Swinger’s 2017 NFL record: 18-24-2 ATS (-11.25 units)

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