After breaking down the stats and betting trends for all the games on this week’s slate, I have come up with a pair matchups that should make a perfect Week 11 parlay play.
The second half of the CFL regular season gets underway this week with Game 1 of three home-and-home series over the next two weeks. The following is a closer look at my two top picks this week based on CFL odds from 5Dimes.
Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Toronto comes into this showdown for the outright lead in the East Division still stinging from a 38-15 loss to Edmonton last Friday as a six-point road underdog that dropped its record on the year to 6-3 straight-up and 5-4 against the spread. The Argonauts have now failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are averaging a respectable 26.4 points a game, but last week against the Eskimos they had less than 250 total yards on offense including just 40 running the ball.
The Tiger-Cats also lost last week to fall to 6-3 SU on the year. They found themselves on the wrong end of a 26-23 score against Montreal as heavy 11-point home favorites to snap a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Quarterback Zach Collaros still managed to complete 20-of-27 attempts for 293 yards in the losing cause. He is ranked first in the CFL in passing yards this season with 2,632.
The Argonauts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven East Division games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after failing to cover ATS in their previous outing. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six division games.
The Tiger-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team from the East. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five division games.
Hamilton has covered ATS in six of the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven games. The Tiger-Cats won the first meeting this season 34-18 on Aug. 3 as 3.5-point home favorites.
I am going to go with Hamilton this East Division clash. The Tiger-Cats are still the class of this division with solid balance on both sides of the ball and they know just how important winning the first game at home in this series is to staying on top in the East.
Edmonton Eskimos vs. Calgary Stampeders
Edmonton improved to 6-3 both SU and ATS with last week’s win against Toronto. Quarterback James Franklin turned in another strong performance by completing 29-of-38 attempts for 335 yards and a score. He also led the team in rushing with 51 yards and a touchdown on four carries. The Eskimos have really helped their cause with a defense that is ranked first in the CFL in average points allowed (18.3).
The defending Grey Cup Champions have the best record in the league this season at 7-2 SU following last Saturday’s 36-8 romp over Winnipeg as five-point road favorites. It was just the second time that Calgary covered a spread this season after closing as a favorite in its first nine games. Bo Levi Mitchell also had a big day behind center with 314 yards passing and two touchdown throws.
The Eskimos are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the West. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 11 road games.
The Stampeders are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 West Division games and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games.
Calgary has won the last 10 meetings SU and it is 9-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in the last two games between these two division rivals.
The Stampeders have owned this series the past several years both SU and ATS. While I think it should remain a competitive contest until the final gun, I do not see Edmonton keeping things that close to cover ATS. I'm taking Calgary -5 with one of my CFL picks.