After breaking down the stats and betting trends for all the games on this week’s slate, I have decided to use the same two matchups from last week for my CFL Week 12 parlay pick.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Toronto Argonauts
The Tiger-Cats made a statement in Monday’s 42-12 romp as 7.5-point home favorites that the road to the East Division title once again goes through Hamilton after finishing first last year. They are now 7-3 straight-up on the year with a profitable 8-2 record against the spread. Quarterback Zach Collaros was basically unstoppable in Monday’s win with 400 yards passing and four touchdown throws.
The lopsided loss knocked Toronto a game off the pace in the East at 6-4 SU and it is now an even 5-5 ATS. The main concern heading into this rematch is the fact that the Argonauts’ defense had no answer for stopping Hamilton on Monday and this unit is now ranked sixth in the league in points allowed (28.7). The Argonauts also have to be concerned with a running game that managed only 48 yards in that loss.
The Tiger-Cats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four division games.
The Argonauts are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight division games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games against a team from the East.
Hamilton has covered ATS in seven of the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games. The Tiger-Cats also won the first meeting this season 34-18 on Aug. 3 as 3.5-point home favorites.
I went with Hamilton at home last week and it paid off in a big way, but it is still tough to beat a division foe twice in five days. What I do like for my CFL picks this time around is the total staying UNDER. I cannot see the Tiger-Cats running up the score too high on the road and Toronto’s offense is struggling no matter where it plays.
CFL Pick: 'Under' 53.5 (-110)
Calgary Stampeders vs. Edmonton Eskimos
Calgary took a big step in its defense of last year’s Grey Cup title with Monday’s hard-fought 16-7 victory over Edmonton as a 4.5-point home favorite this past Monday. The Stampeders are now two games up on Edmonton in the West Division race at a CFL-best 8-2 SU and they have covered in three of their last four contests after going 0-6 ATS to start the season.
The Eskimos are well aware that this Saturday’s contest is basically a must-win affair to keep from going three games down and while their defense can still hang its head high after Monday’s loss, there has to be some genuine concerns on offense. Edmonton remains first in the league in average points allowed (18.1), but over its past four games this offense has been held to an average of just 20 points while going 2-2 (SU and ATS).
The Stampeders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 11 games.
The Eskimos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 16 games.
Calgary has won the last 11 meetings SU and it is 10-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings in Edmonton
Calgary has completely dominated this series in recent years, but once again I am leery about going against the home team in a series like this, especially coming off a fairly close loss. That is why I am also going with the UNDER in this matchup. Both defenses rose to the occasion this past Monday and I see the same thing happening this time around as well.
CFL Pick: 'Under' 47 (-110)