CFL Grey Cup Playoffs Parlay Picks - Division Finals

David Schwab

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 9:17 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 9:17 PM GMT

Both Montreal and Edmonton advanced out of the Division Semifinals of the 2014 CFL Grey Cup Playoffs and my postseason got off to hot start with the correct pick in both contests to cash-in on my first CFL playoff parlay. We now turn out attention to this Sunday's Division Finals.

The stakes have been raised much higher this Sunday with a trip to the Grey Cup Championship Game in Vancouver on the line in the Division Finals. The following is a brief betting preview for the two matchups as well as my CFL playoff parlay picks based on CFL betting odds as provided by 5Dimes.

 

Game 1
Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Pointspread: Hamilton -3.5
Total: 47
 

Betting Overview
Montreal was probably the last team in the CFL besides the expansion Ottawa RedBlacks that you would have  included in your CFL picks to be in this spot at the halfway point of the regular season. However; faith prevailed and a resurgent offense led by quarterback Jonathan Crompton and a defense that also stepped up its game was the key to turning things around. Crompton only threw for 155 yards in the Alouettes’ stunning 50-17 rout of British Columbia last week, but he made every yard count by completing 14-of-21 throws for two scores to help lead the way.

Montreal started this season 1-5 both SU and ATS, but once it finally did get its act together, it cruised to a 7-1 SU record in its last eight contests while going a profitable 6-1-1 ATS. The total went OVER against the Lions after staying UNDER in six of the Alouettes’ final seven regular season games.

Hamilton also had a very forgettable start to the season with just one SU victory in its first seven games, but a strong 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) finish landed the Tiger-Cats in their second-straight East Division title game. A 38-31 loss to Montreal in Week 12 as a 1.5-point road favorite helped to trigger this impressive run down the stretch. The total stayed UNDER in seven of those final nine games.

The most important victory of the season came in Week 20 when Hamilton rolled to a 29-15 romp over Montreal as four-point favorites at home to clinch the East Division. Zach Collaros completed 20-of-28 attempts for 207 yards and a score and Nic Grigsby got it done on the ground with 93 yards rushing and a score on 19 carries.

 

Betting Trends
The Alouettes have gone 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the division and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games in the division finals. The total has stayed UNDER in 14 of their last 17 games on the road.

The Tiger-Cats have covered ATS in four of their last five games following a SU win, but they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in the playoffs. The total has stayed UNDER in 17 of their last 21 home games.

Head-to-head in this East rivalry, the home team has come out on top SU in the last nine contests. Montreal brings a 5-1 edge ATS in the last six meetings into Sunday’s game and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.

 

Betting Prediction
I like Montreal’s chances to stay on a roll with a SU win in this game, but given just how close these two division rivals matchup against one another, I am staying away from an official pick on a side. Instead, I am kicking this Sunday’s CFL parlay off with a play on the UNDER on a total of 47 points as both team’s defenses shine in this one.

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Game 2
Edmonton Eskimos vs. Calgary Stampeders
Pointspread: Calgary -6.5
Total: 48.5
 

Betting Overview
Edmonton went into last Sunday’s playoff game against Saskatchewan with some major injury issues at quarterback. Mike Reilly did not get the start, but he was able to come in later in the game to help lead the Eskimos to a tight 18-10 victory as seven-point home favorites. He completed just six of eight passes for 53 yards, but his presence was a welcomed sight under center for Edmonton.

The Eskimos come into this Sunday’s game with a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in their last five contests with the total staying UNDER in all five outings. Edmonton’s defense has been a huge key to the team’s success in these five games by holding opponents to just 13 points a game.

Calgary started fast, ended hot and played quality football all season long with a SU record of 15-3 and a profitable record of 12-5-1 ATS. It went 7-2 SU at home with a 5-4 record ATS. The total went OVER in four of its last five games of the season.

The Stampeders were able to win the majority of their games behind an extremely well-balanced effort. The defense allowed the second-fewest points in the CFL and Calgary was a scoring machine on offense with a CFL-high 28.4 points a game. In three regular season games against Edmonton, it rolled-up a combined 95 points. With Bo Levi Mitchell throwing the ball and Jon Cornish running it, it was easy to see why this was the most potent offensive attack in the league.

 

Betting Trends
The Eskimos have posted a 5-1 record ATS in their last six division games and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 postseason games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games on the road.

The Stampeders have covered ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six home games in the playoffs.

Calgary went a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS in this season’s three-game series against the Eskimos. The Stampeders have now won the last 10 meetings SU and they are 5-0 ATS in the last five. The total has stayed UNDER in four of those five games.

 

Betting Prediction
Calgary has completely dominated this series over the past several years and when you add in the fact that it playing at home following a bye, there is little to no chance that Edmonton wins this game. Given just how dominant the Stampeders edge was this season, it is also highly doubtful that the Eskimos play well enough to cover with just 6.5 points.

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