Catching Early Value Across The Board For Your Week 17 NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Monday, December 28, 2015 4:14 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 28, 2015 4:14 PM UTC

It’s Week 17 of the NFL’s Regular Season and with only a few Playoffs spots for grabs, expecting an unexpected type of game from the teams you usually back, let's find those NFL picks together.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

New York Jets -2½, 43 vs. Buffalo Bills
A monster game for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets as now if they win, they’re in the Playoffs as a Wild Card entrant, likely leaving the Pittsburgh Steelers home crying in their Rolling Rock beers. Here, the New York Jets (10-5 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) will head upstate to Rich Stadium in Buffalo—fresh off a freaky OT Win over the Patriots in Week 16 where the Coin Flip may have doomed the Steelers, who weren’t even there—to face Tyrod Taylor and the Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) in an AFC East showdown and sort-of Playoff, play-in game for New York AFC and WR Eric Decker, who snagged Sunday’s game-winning TD in OT. Dios mio. When these two last met in Week 10 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, the Bills won outright as 2½-point underdogs, 22-17 and with that ATS cover, Buffalo and former Jets head Coach Rex Ryan are now 5-1 ATS the L6 against the Jets. With the Point Spread here opening up at Jets -2½ (43, Pinnacle)—the Advanced Line was Bills -1½, so you can see how huge that Win against the Super Bowl champs as well as that OT Coin Toss on Sunday was—and a 1½ (now at 2 just minutes later) in the marketplace over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, it seems a confident Fitzpatrick uses Decker and fellow WR Brandon Marshall to the max in Week 17 and CB Darrelle Revis gets the Jets Defense right where he wants them as New York finds a way to get the Win in a grinder in Bison City. With that Coin Flip that got the Jets to this point, it’s always something, and often something really stupid and unpredictable from someone perceived really smart. The Truth always trumps Perceptions in the end. And because of that, the Bookie Man’s wife will be sleeping on new Silk Sheets again in 2016. Although I do not know her, I do not like that damn woman.

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NFL Pick: Jets -3
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers -10½, 47
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston head to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte this Sunday to face Cam Newton and the no longer unbeaten Carolina Panthers (14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS) in a now anticlimactic Week 17. With the way the Bucs looked last TNF at the Rams combined with their poor performance and Loss on Sunday at Home at Raymond James to the Chicago Bears, it’s impossible to recommend backing Tampa bay no matter how many points but the way the Falcons brought Carolina down to Earth in Atlanta on Sunday in Week 16 makes it impossible to recommend backing the Panthers so this may be a good Under, depending on Carolina’s motivation and all they need to do is Win to secure Home-field Advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs, so expect a better effort from the hosts here in the Tar Heel State but who knows how many quarters the Panthers will have to play hard against these Buccaneers. A good number and the Advanced Line here was -10. Carolina is 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings against Tampa Bay including a Week 4 Win and cover in sunny Florida as 3-point favorites, 37-23.

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New England Patriots -8 vs. Miami Dolphins
The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (12-3 SU, 7-5-3 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (66-49-1 ATS on Road) head to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday afternoon for this Week 17 meeting with the Miami Dolphins (5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS). New England Head Coach Bill Belichick (158-118-8 ATS) had his Patriots lay down in Week 17 last season when they lost to at Home to Buffalo, 17-9 but he won’t have that luxury now after a Loss to the Jets in Week 16 after a freaky OT Coin Toss gave the Jets the Kickoff, and with it, the game-winning TD. Happy Old Year. Get out of here. When these two AFC East sides met earlier this season in Week 8, the Patriots walloped the Dolphins, 36-7, easily covering ATS as 8-point favorites in Foxboro but New England is 0-3 ATS the L3 here in Miami Gardens but New England and TE Rob Gronkowski are the only way to go as this is basically a Patriots Motivation + Dolphins Are Really Bad type handicap. 1 +1 = 2. Nothing new. The Westgate SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had this one lined at Patriots -3½, so the exact same Point Spread, and the Advanced Line out last week was -3½, so anyone who bought New England then looks smart now and also has a decent-sized Middle opportunity (Patriots by 4, 5, 6, 7) to boot. That Coin Toss may have accidentally triggered World War III. This tussle may be a good Under too.

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NFL Pick: Patriots -9
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals -7
The Baltimore Ravens (5-10 SU, 4-9-2 ATS) start off the year 2016—the Chinese Year of the Codewriter I believe—in the Queen City facing Bengals backup AJ McCarron (scheduled 3rd start) and the Cincinnati (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS; at Broncos on Monday Night Football) in an AFC North contest important to the Bengals in that they can still earn Home-field Advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a Win in Denver in Week 16 combined with a Win here and an an unlikely upset of the Patriots by the Dolphins in Miami. Nothing big. When these two met earlier this Regular Season in Crab City, the Bengals won outright as 2½-point underdogs, 28-24 in Week 3 before the wheels fell off for the Ravens and when QB Joe Flacco and WR Steve Smith were healthy and when Oddsmakers could still make them favored in that spot. Baltimore is just 1-5 the L6 ATS vs. Cincinnati and the Bengals are a powerful 5-1 ATS the L6 here at Home at Paul Brown Stadium against the Ravens. The Westgate SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened the Bengals as 3-point chalks here, so the tale of Baltimore’s season is told in that 7-point difference. The Advanced Line was -10, so you can see how much Baltimore’s Win over Pittsburgh on Sunday affected the number.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Still No Line for this Week 17 game on Sunday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta between the visiting New Orleans Saints (7-9 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) and Matt Ryan and the host Falcons (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) in an NFC South game which on paper says the Falcons still have an NFC Playoff shot. There’s still No Line even though Saints QB Drew Brees (Torn Plantar Fascia) played and looked pretty decent, throwing for over 400 yards in a Week 16 Win (and ATS cover) over the Jaguars. When these two teams met earlier this season in Week 6, New Orleans burst Atlanta’s perfect bubble—and the Dirty Birds haven’t been the same since—winning outright, 31-21 as 3-point underdogs in The Big Easy. But still, with the Falcons 3-1 ATS overall the L4 in this series, 3-0 ATS here in Atlanta, feeling good after knocking off previously unbeaten Carolina on Sunday and with Brees still potentially a little gimpy, staying away or maybe backing the Over as Falcons WR Julio Jones (127 Receptions, 9 on Sunday for 178 yards and a TD, 19.7 ypc) continues to chase the NFL’s All-Time Receptions mark (143) set by the Colts Marvin Harrison back in 2002 seems like prudent advice from this distance. And a Julio Jones Anytime TD Score prop bet is a must when that marketplace opens.

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NFL Pick: Over 52
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans -5.5
Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) head to NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday afternoon to face the AFC South-leading Texans (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS). When these two AFC South foes met earlier this year in Jacksonville, the Texans won 31-20 as 2½-point underdogs and the Jaguars are 4-2 ATS the L6 in this series and 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Houston, including a cover last year in Week 17 getting 9 points as an underdog in a 23-17 Loss. But the strong Point Spread call here is on host Houston who will be motivated and feeling real good about themselves after thrashing the Titans, 34-6 in Week 16. Houston should win this one by around by 20. Can we give 10 thumbs up? What? We only have two?

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NFL Pick: Texans -5½ 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Pittsburgh Steelers -10, 47 vs. Cleveland Browns
Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6 SU, 7-6-2 ATS) find themselves in a desperate situation all of a sudden as they head to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland this Sunday to wrap up the Regular Season with an all-of-a-sudden important AFC North date with Johnny Manziel and the Browns (3-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS) in a game which will only hold significance for Antonio Brown and the visitors in that they absolutely have to Win...and then pray. When these two met earlier this season in The Steel City, the Steelers rolled the Browns, 30-9, covering ATS as 7-point favorites. Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS the L4 here in Cleveland and although the hungry Steelers and Head Coach Mike Tomlin (75-73-4 ATS) should make a fine Holiday Soup out of the Browns, the way Pittsburgh looked on Sunday was a reminder of how bad they can play at times and getting swept by the Ravens says it all. The Grinch wouldn’t touch this one with a 39½-foot pole now. The Advanced Line here was 9½.

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Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs -6½, 43½
The Oakland Raiders (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) head two Time Zones east (PST to MST) to Kansas City and Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday to face Jeremy Maclin and their longtime AFC West rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) who have now W9 straight games—and covered 7 of the 9 ATS. Chiefs QB Alex Smith and the team could qualified for an AFC Wild Card spot in Week 16 with their win over the Browns and this team could still win the AFC West should Denver (10-4) slip up on MNF in Week 16 and in Week 17. When these two met earlier this season, Eric Berry and the Chiefs won, 34-20 in Week 13 in Oakland, easily covering ATS as 3-point favorites. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS the L4 against the Silver and Black but a woeful 2-7 ATS the L9 against Oakland here at Home although none of those Chiefs teams—the glorious Len Dawson and Otis Taylor AFL years withstanding—were as good or as Confident or had as much Momentum as this one.

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NFL Picks: Chiefs -6½ & Under 43½ 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
With QB Andrew Luck hurt and now backup Matt Hasselbeck hurt, is it a good idea for the Indianapolis Colts (6-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) to even try to make the Postseason? In the name of Charlie Whitehurst, by God it is, and after all the Horseshoes are only playing the lowly Tennessee Titans (3-12 SU, 4-10-1 ATS) who may be going with backup Zach Mettenberger in for injured Rookie Marcus Mariota. When these two AFC South teams met earlier this season in Opryland, the Colts sang their hearts out in a 35-33 Win but failed to cover ATS as 3-point chalks. Trend-wise, the Colts are an sparkly 7-0-1 ATS the L8 against Tennessee and Indianapolis is 5-1-1 ATS the L7 here at Home at Lucas Oil Stadium and is worth a shot even if it Whitehurst and Mettenberger are the starting QBs here. Week 17 often resemble the Preseason. So why back possibly third-stringer Whitehurst and the Colts in this spot? Because fading the Titans week-in and week-out has been good, logical Sports Gambling no matter how much some of the so-called Sharps try to justify their Tennessee delusions. The Titans are 2-14-3 ATS their L19 against teams with a Losing record and now 8-25-3 ATS their L35 overall (24.2%). If something (fading Titans) is hitting 76.8% in the NFL over the past couple of seasons and you’re not blindly backing it then that’s on you Bubba. Tennessee is simply not a good football team (18-45 SU L3 seasons). The Advanced Line here was (Colts minus) 2, so if you took Indianapolis at that number, good for you. You get a couple of cookies along with probably all of your winnings.

NFL Pick: Colts 
No Odds


Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys -4
Kirk Cousins and the NFC East champion Washington Redskins (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) head south to the Lone Star State of Texas next Sunday afternoon in Week 17 play to face the Dallas Cowboys (4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS) and possibly Boise State product Kellen Moore at QB with Tony Romo out and Matt Cassel a variable in a game which now means little after the Redskins win over the Eagles in Philadelphia on TNF. When these two met earlier this season in Week 13, the Cowboys defeated the Redskins, 19-16, winning outright as 2-point underdogs and like that game, it seems we can anticipate few points here. Dallas and WR Dez Bryant are a dismal 3-8 ATS the L11 in this series and America’s Former Team, the Cowboys are 1-7 ATS the L8 here in Arlington against Washington, so, buyer beware. Again, this seems like a good Under in a lot (1st Quarter, 1st Half, Game) of ways. The Advanced Line here was Pick ‘Em.

NFL Pick: Under 
No Odds


Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears -1½, 45
Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (6-9 SU, 7-7-1) welcome Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) to Chicago on Sunday in a meaningless NFC North showdown between two teams who honestly should be pretty good next year—the NFC North, along with the NFC West will be the strongest divisions in the NFL in 2016/17—which will see many a football in flight with these two QBs and all of their talented, speedy Skill Guys. When these two met at Ford Field earlier this season, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the Lions won 37-34 in OT but failed to cover ATS by a ½ point as 3½-point chalks. Waaaah. Detroit is 5-2 ATS the L7 in this series but expect Cutler, WR Alshon Jeffery and RB Matt Forte to find a way to protect the home Soldier Field turf although both teams have been very schizophrenic this season, despite the deceptively nice Offensive Rosters. This looks like a good Over, Windy City weather-depending but the Midwest has been relatively mild so far this young Winter with the weather here in Las Vegas actually colder.

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NFL Pick: Over 45 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants -3½
DeMarco Murray and the Philadelphia Eagles (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) head down the turnpike to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday afternoon to face Odell Beckham, Jr. (Suspension, Week 16) and the New York Giants (6-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, at Vikings on Sunday, losing 42-10 in 4Q) in a now meaningless NFC East because someone put a Magic Spell on the Redskins and because Kirk Cousins (recognize) is actually a pretty good QB (his teammates knew). When these two played earlier this year in Week 6 in the City of Brotherly Love, the Eagles won, 27-7 and covered ATS as 3½-point favorites. With the G-Men’s Defense so bad all year statistically (#32 in NFL in Total Yards Allowed, 423.0 ypg; #32 in NFL in Passing Yards Allowed, 308.4 ypg heading into SNF), this Week 17 game may be a good Over when the Total is released on Monday in that marketplace as either Fear or Sloppiness—or some perverted combination of the both may end up ruling the day at 1 MetLife Stadium Drive. The Westgate SuperBook NFL Games of the Year, released late each spring, had the Eagles as 2-point favorites here so you can see how those momentary Wiseguy delusions that Philadelphia was a good NFL team were just delusions. The Advanced Line out last week was -2½, so a dancing around of the Key Number (3) if you will.

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NFL Pick: Over 52
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers -3
QB Teddy Bridgewater and the upstart Minnesota Vikings (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS, leading Giants, 42-10 in 4Q on SNF) head across the stateline from the Land of 10,000 Lakes to America’s Dairyland not to stock up on Cheese Curds or just say “Hello’, but to bang helmets and ring in the New Year with the frustrated-looking Aaron Rodgers and their heated rivals, the Green Bay Packers (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) in this Week 17 game which will likely determine the division champion and which will should be one of the better games this Week 17. When these two met in Minneapolis earlier this season, the Packers won 30-13 getting a point and humbled the Vikings and pretty much psychologically put them back in the Pecking Order-place both in the NFC North as well as the NFC, although this is the best Minnesota has been in awhile, thanks in great part to the return of RB Adrian Peterson. The Packers are 5-1 ATS the L6 here at Lambeau Field and after much contemplation, are now not the call in this spot as if the Lions and Chiefs can make Life miserable for the Jordy Nelson-less Pack at Lambeau, the Vikings should be able to beat them here and get some purple Revenge. The Advanced Line here was Green Bay -5½ so you can see how the Cardinals humbling of the Cheeseheads in the sonoran Desert affected the Point Spread and perceptions.

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NFL Pick: Vikings +3 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365


San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos -7½
Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) head west a Time Zone (PST to MST) to Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium to face Arizona State product and QB Brock Osweiler and the Broncos (10-4 SU, 8-4-2 ATS, vs. Bengals on MNF) in what will be a meaningless game for the visitors but a massive game—and almost assumed Win in this spot—for the hosts from the Rocky Mountains. In Week 13, the visiting Broncos won 17-3 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego and covered ATS as a 6-point favorite but Denver and the now unsure-handed WR Demaryius Thomas are a pathetic 1-7 ATS the L8 here at Home vs. the Chargers although probably none of those meetings held the significance this one does. The Advanced Line here was (Broncos minus) 9½ and the Conventional Wisdom here is that Denver blows San Diego away by double-digits.

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St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers -3½, 37½
Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers (4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS) welcome Case Keenum and the St. Louis Rams (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS)—fresh off their Sweep of their rival Seahawks—in this NFC West Week 17 game which could be a very sad affair in so many ways from the unfriendly confines of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara where nary a real 49ers fan wants to go these sorry days. When these two forced rivals met earlier this season in St. Louis, Rookie RB Todd Gurley and the Rams topped San Francisco, 27-6, easily covering the Point Spread as 7½-point home favorites and St. Louis is a much better football team overall and is the call here, although finding a 3 (Bookmaker, The Greek) seems logical. The 49ers are 3-2 ATS the L5 in this series and won 21-17 last season when a man named Jim Harbaugh was the team’s Head Coach. Now Jim Tomsula has that title. You do the math. But 1 - 1 = 2 in this particular case.

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NFL Pick: Rams -3 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek


Seattle Seahawks -3½, 47½ vs. Arizona Cardinals
The marquee Game of the Week for Week 17 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale next Sunday between Carson Palmer and the host Arizona Cardinals (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) and University of Wisconsin product Russell Wilson and the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) is probably best just watched and enjoyed with some Pizza and Chicken Wings and before Week 16 action, my mind thought the winner of this game will have the best chance at beating the New England Patriots in a theoretical Super Bowl 50, but now my mind says that nobody’s stopping Arizona and Head Coach Bruce Arians this season. When these very, very good NFL teams met in Seattle earlier this year, Larry Fitzgerald and the Birds shocked the Seahawks, winning 39-32 as 3-point Road underdogs. This baby seems like the perfect example of a great game to actually stay away from and just watch (and learn from) although Arizona will want the sweep and to send Seattle stumbling to 9-7. This will be war. The Seahawks are 4-2 ATS the L6 in this series and the Westgate SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had Seattle 3½-point favorites here while the Advanced Line here had Seattle as 2½-point chalks, so you can see how the combined effects of Arizona’s humiliation of the Packers and the Rams upset in Seattle in Week 16 on Sunday affected this number, including flipping the favorite...and rightfully so. An absolutely fabulous way to end the Regular Season and too bad this one couldn’t be on in primetime.

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