Cardinals vs. Rams NFL Picks: Betting Angle Supports 'Under' Play

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, December 1, 2015 7:09 PM GMT

The Arizona Cardinals visit the St. Louis Rams and we are ready to break down the NFL odds to provide you with the top selections for you yto boost profits and add to your NFL picks.

The Cardinals have essentially a chance to lock up the NFC West division this week against the Rams, and the NFL odds have Arizona as a -5 ½ favorite on the road in the Edward Jones Dome. Can the Cardinals come through, or will the Rams turn it around on Week 13?

 

Rams Collapsing Offense Heads Home
When Todd Gurley came bursting onto the scene earlier in the season, it looked as if the Rams had everything they needed to make a run at the playoffs. However that was then, and this is now. The Rams have lost their last four games SU and ATS, and while they still have a very outside shot at making the playoffs, it won’t happen this year.

There have been several problems over the last four weeks. Their defense collapsed against the Bears in Week 10 and last week against the Bengals, but the main reason they have been so bad is their horrible passing game.

No matter who is in the game for St. Louis, the offense doesn’t move unless Gurley is ripping off 50-yard runs. Furthermore, teams are starting to key in on that. Gurley hasn’t seen less than eight guys in the box in a month, and it has shown with his yardage totals. After four straight 100-yard games, Gurley has averaged less than 55 yards per game in this four-game losing streak.

Foles has not thrown a touchdown in his last three starts, and even though he has only tossed one pick in those games, he has a QBR of less than 30 in that stretch, and his yards per attempt is only around five.

This week against a better than average Cardinals defense, the Rams could easily falter again. However, with the exception of three weeks ago against the Bears at home, which I can tell you is almost a neutral field in that rivalry, Foles and the Rams have played better in the dome. If you take away his performance in Week 10, Foles has a yards per attempt average of 8.36 at home this season, and twice he has had a quarterback rating of more than 100 at home.

 

The Sharp Pick
While the spread is interesting for this game, the total of 43 points is a little more intriguing for the under this week. The Cardinals lost their top two tailbacks in Week 12, and now rookie, David Johnson takes the field as the presumed starter. Even though he has looked exceptional in his limited touches this season, on the road in St. Louis against that defense is going to be a tough first start.

With the Cards stable of backs bruised up right now, it could throw their offense into a funk. If the Rams know what’s coming, they might be ready for some of the Carson Palmer pass plays, and could turn the Cards over if Bruce Arians gives up on the run at all. Arians obviously hasn’t truest Johnson much this season already, but even if the Cards pass more in this one, it might not lead to more points.

The last time these two teams faced off against one another in St. Louis, the final score ended in favor of Arizona 12-6. I doubt the final of this one is that low, but as long as St. Louis’ defense shows up, I see it as a lower scoring game on the Mississippi River this week. Take that into account for your NFL picks.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 43 at Pinnacle

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