Cardinals vs. Browns NFL Pick: Use Contrarian Approach & Go Against Public

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 31, 2015 7:09 PM GMT

We look at the Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns matchup for our Lone Ranger Game of the Week. Why should we back the Browns as a contrarian NFL pick?

Arizona Cardinals (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns 1:00 EST
The Arizona Cardinals travel east for this late morning body time kickoff against the Cleveland Browns. They are also playing on a short week, following an emotional MNF bounce back win against the Baltimore Ravens on their home field. Cleveland returns home from a turnover plagued disaster against the Rams, in which four lost fumbles were largely responsible for the 24-6 Cleveland loss in St Louis. It is dichotomous results such as these which play on the subconscious, and leads sports bettors to erroneous conclusions based on the most recent results they have seen. It is a main reason why most sports bettors are momentum players, rather than considering let downs and bounce backs.

With last week’s results firmly implanted in the mind of the public, they are eager to jump on the Arizona Cardinals, who have been very good to them since current HC Bruce Arians took the reins. By this time, everyone knows that HC Arians is on a 33-16 ATS run with all the profit coming in a 24-6 SU ATS run when playing opponents who are .500 or less. With QB Palmer at the helm, the run has been even stronger at 20-5 SU, 18-7 ATS. On Monday night, Arizona outrushed Baltimore 28/150 to 6/55. For years, the running game had been the Achilles heel of the Cardinals. After the Monday night performance, they are outrushing foes for the year 126/4.8 to 98/4.0. Along with an improved defense allowing just 19 PPG and 321 YPG, it is no wonder the public is in love with this team. Furthering their position against the Browns is the fact that Cleveland QB McCown (shoulder) is still questionable for this game, leaving QB Manziel, who has more personal issues, as the potential starting signal caller.

That means it’s just you, me, and the Lone Ranger once again this week as we make our contrarian play on the Cleveland Browns. This point spread victory will lift the record of the NFL Lone Ranger selections to 7-1 ATS. But we have ample technical support to back our position. Under current Cleveland HC Pettine, the Browns are 10-2 ATS following a loss, 10-4 ATS as underdog, and a combined 7-1 ATS as dog off a loss. Cleveland has also covered 9 consecutive games as a non-division home dog. At 2-5 SU, on a two game losing streak, and losing ugly last week, no one will be interested in Cleveland. That means we put the NFL odds in our favor when we back the Cleveland Browns as our NFL pick as the Lone Ranger Game of the Week. 

NFL Picks: Browns +7 at 5Dimes

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