Cappers' Top Value NFL Picks for Week 4

Joe Catalano

Sunday, September 28, 2014 3:16 PM GMT

The first bye week has kicked in the NFL in week 4, and although we won’t be seeing Peyton Manning this week, there are still some very competitive matchup in which you can clearly find a betting edge. Let’s take a look.

Injuries
Injuries will play a key role this week. Some players such as Arian Foster are game-time decisions, therefore bet accordingly and keep looking at the injury reports at Twitter or a local fantasy league injury page perhaps.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Two teams that really stuck out to me last week when I was preparing my free NFL picks are these two teams. The Bucs because they’re an awful football team and were embarrassed by the Atlanta Falcons 56-14 on national television and the Pittsburgh Steelers due to the emergence of running back Le’Veon Bell (315 yards,  5.9 yds per carry, 1 TD) and of course their star wide receiver Antonio Brown.

The Steelers really beat up a supposedly tough Panthers defense with just these two men and the second unit finished the job. It’s early in the season and the Steelers are only a touchdown favorite over possibly the worst team in the NFL. If this was week 10, they would be a double-digit favorite.

NFL Pick- Pittsburgh -7.5 (+100) at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290613, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Even though the “Dirty Birds” do most of their dirty work at home and their season last year was flatout “dirty” at 4-12, the Atlanta Falcons appear to have one of the best teams in football. You saw what the Falcons could do last week as they scored at will against the Bucs in a 56-14 romp; the game wasn’t even that close.

Devin Hester has been implemented into the receiving core and along with the NFL’s leading receiver Julio Jones, the Vikes have no chance without Adrian Peterson, who most likely will never wear his purple jersey again. Bridgewater has potential, but Ryan is an intelligent quarterback. Atlanta should win on the road quite easily.

NFL Pick- Atlanta Falcons -4

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290620, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) vs. San Francisco 49’ers (1-2)
Might we say that this is already a must win situation for the 49’ers? This was once a team that was a play away from winning the Super Bowl to a team that appears to not like their coach, is in disarray, and has a lot of targets but little results to show for it.

On the other hand, Chip Kelly has the Eagles playing like champions and LeSean McCoy is having a poor start to the season and the Eagles no longer have DeSean Jackson. This guy is a miracle worker. The one thing that the Eagles don’t have is a good pass defense and it could come back to bite them here. San Francisco will be looking to run with Colin Kaepernick and air the football out to their many targets. For your NFL picks look for the 49’ers to even up their season.

NFL Pick- San Francisco 49ers -4

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290621, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2)
Owner Jerry Jones is strutting like a peacock because he thinks he has a bigtime winner with this season’s Cowboys team. Then again, I remember when Jones thought that Morris Claiborne was the second coming of Deion Sanders.

The Cowboys have one player that a lot of teams wish that they had and that’s DeMarco Murray. Murray is emerging as possibly the best running back in the NFL. Most of Dallas’ offensive plays are set up for Murray as veterans like Jason Witten are getting older. Murray has rushed for over 100 yards in every game ,but I think that we’re going to see a lot of Dez Bryant in this game as the game should be a shootout with the Saints who feed off of the pass.

This will make Bryant happy, but one player who hasn’t been happy is longtime receiver Marques Colston. He’s hardly been targeted at all and I expect that to change. Jimmy Graham plays like a wide receiver and expect to see a lot of him. This game will be full of offense.

NFL Pick- Dallas/New Orleans Over 54

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290622, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Other NFL Leans
New York Jets +1 Over Detroit Lions
Megatron hasn’t gotten off to the quick start that we’re used to and Geno Smith has shown that he’s a much improved quarterback. If Smith can stay away from the turnovers, the Jets should win at home.

Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Under 41
Without Knowshon Moreno in this game, look for a snoozefest as both of these offenses are stuck in neutral. Ryan Tannehill? No thanks!