Capper's O/U Insight for Packers vs. Redskins NFC Wild Card Pick

Kevin Stott

Saturday, January 9, 2016 6:22 PM GMT

Let’s look at the scores from those past 10 meetings and try to determine where these teams are both now at and think about how this Wild Card game may end up playing out.

 

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Predicted Final Score: Green Bay Packers 23   Washington Redskins 20
NFL Picks: 1st Quarter Under 7½  & Under 46
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins
Site: FedExField, Landover, Maryland
When: Sunday, December 10, 2016
Time: 4:40 p.m. EST/1:40 p.m. PST [Sunday 21:40]
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Packers—SIRI 83 (Internet 811), Redskins—SIRI 82 (Internet 831)
Satellite Radio: National Broadcast—SIRI 88 (Internet 88)
Weather: Cloudy early, partial Sunshine, High 58°, Winds SW 10-20 mph, 70% Humidity
Current Consensus Point Spread: Packers -1
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 44½ (Treasure Island)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 45 (a few 45½’s)
Current High Total in Marketplace: 46 (Coast Casinos)
Alternate Total: Under 47 -142, Over 47 +110 (at Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 48 -162, Over 48 +120 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 48½ -167, Over 48½ +125 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 49 -175, Over 49 +130 (bet365)
1st Quarter Total: 7½ (-120, Paddy Power)
1st Half Total: 21½ (-110, Ladbrokes)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The biggest thing about this game and for the Green Bay Packers (Under 10-3 L13 Packers games overall) is the absence of WR Jordy Nelson. Without Nelson, Green Bay is just not the same football team on Offense and the pace of Packers and big chunks of yards they used to get humming up the field seems like a distant memory as QB Aaron Rodgers (35-30 ATS on Road, 5-3 ATS this season) works with WRs Randall Cobb and James Jones and Rodgers himself looks a little less dominant. For Washington (Over 6-2 L8 Redskins vs. NFC), QB Kirk Cousins is going in the opposite direction, seems to have earned himself a (deserved) starting spot with the Redskins (Over 6-2 L8 on Grass) and has proved his teammates who said he should be the man all along (over Robert Griffin III) right. NFC East champions Washington (6-2 SU at Home, 5-3 against the NFL odds) and 2nd-year Head Coach Jay Gruden are on a roll and feeling good about themselves heading in here while the 5th-seeded Cheeseheads (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) and 10th-year Head Coach Mike McCarthy come limping in and wobbly and the honest thought here is whomever gets the winner of this game in the next round is a very lucky NFC football team and may be your next Super Bowl champion. The Redskins (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) are an improved team and with WRs DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon and TE Jordan Reed an improved Rushing attack, making the Postseason was no fluke in the pukey NFC East but Washington’s weak Defense (#28, 6,090 yards, 380.6 ypg, 23.7 ppg) is still a liability and six games against the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants don’t harden one for the rigors of the NFL Playoffs. A suspect schedule. Let's do some more research before making our NFL pick.

 

Final Scores Last 10 Meetings in Green Bay Packers-Washington Redskins Series
2013—@ Packers 38 Redskins 20 Total—47½ Result—Over
2010—@ Redskins 16 Packers 13 Total—45 Result—Under
2007—@ Packers 17 @ Redskins 14 Total—40½ Result—Under
2004—Packers 28 @ Redskins 14 Total—40½ Result—Over
2002—@ Packers 30 Redskins 9 Total—48 Result—Under
2001—@ Packers 37 Redskins 0 Total—40½ Result—Under
1988— Redskins 20 @ Packers 17 Total—44 Result—Under (County Stadium, Milwaukee)
1986—Redskins 16 @ Packers 7 Total—N/A Result—Under
1983—Packers 48 @ Redskins 47 Total—N/A Result—Over
1979—@ Redskins 38 Packers 21 Total—N/A Result—Over (RFK Stadium, Washington, DC)

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see, these two teams have trended to the Under (6-4) over the L10 meetings in this series, but with this data so old and these teams so different, this is pretty much meaningless stuff. One thing that stands out more than all these scores is the perception that Green Bay has sort of evolved (devolved?) into an Under team. Packers Unders were 11-5 this season, in large part because of that absence of prolific WR Jordan as well as injuries to the OL and other things, but also because the Green Bay Defense (#15, 5,547 yards, 346.7 ypg, 20.2 ppg) has had to be better to accommodate the lack of Offense and keep Packers (7-3 ATS L10 Playoff games) in games. And that could be the case again here on Sunday at FedExField  in Landover (Maryland) where nobody smashes words together better. Expect this one to start sluggish in a feeling out process and taking a small shot on the 1st Quarter Under (7½, Paddy Power) seems wise although Cousins and the Redskins Offense (#17, 5,661 yards, 353.8 ypg, 24.3 ppg) will definitely try to grab that Momentum, excite the Home crowd and demoralize the Packers with a TD on their first drive. Field position and the start of that drive will matter, and if the Packers (25/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral) win the (opening Coin) Toss, maybe deferring to the 2nd Half may be the best approach. This game could be all about whether or not Cousins and the Washington (50/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) Offense can produce against the Packers Defense when it matters the most—in the Playoffs. This should be close and entertaining game throughout and a TO or mistake may end up being the ultimate difference.